Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd98f15a49d825f792ee7411d0a5aedfe2fe6c43ae2f1c9e151437454d294ef12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,204
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,204 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 14c | 2,897$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.01 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60fc…03b0backed Yes | 26c | 2,385$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 12c | 2,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.7 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +272.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 15c | 1,885$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.17 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa3…6721backed Yes | 10c | 1,827$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91be…2641backed Yes | 41c | 1,501$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c0…136abacked Yes | 20c | 1,395$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.23 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 29cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,246$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.68 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…5abebacked Yes | 10c | 1,140$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 150 | 20.7%31 W · 119 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0d…1683backed Yes | 26c | 1,139$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…9f36backed No | 71c | 999.99$709 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa5…7ac4backed Yes | 10c | 999.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 21c | 806.53$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.69 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 59c | 755$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…ea40backed No | 59c | 746$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 24c | 744.66$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 74c | 737.14$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.15 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 19c | 694.31$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.08 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42b…7577backed No | 74c | 673$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.98 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 48c | 606.82$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.64 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…8195backed Yes | 12c | 533.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.07 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -27%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f0c…f746backed No | 66c | 527.59$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc384…807ebacked Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce8…86b3backed No | 70c | 493.75$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9778…1d7bbacked No | 74c | 466$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.16 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb959…709ebacked No | 77c | 456.41$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.41 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes | 13c | 427.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.05 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 8c | 410.44$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f6b…2a84backed Yes | 10c | 384.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 28c | 340.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2651…3471backed Yes | 48c | 338.84$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.74 | 304 | 43.4%132 W · 172 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 80c | 333.55$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…808ebacked No | 66c | 322.7$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2feb…b324backed Yes | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb08b…4b55backed Yes | 17c | 295.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 27c | 295.54$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…ace5backed No | 67c | 291.07$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +187.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071c…9b75backed Yes | 12c | 281.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4631…3ff9backed Yes | 21c | 273.29$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.07 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc63a…26a0backed No | 65c | 264.37$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 7c | 261.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 19c | 245.72$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…7a6fbacked No | 66c | 211.78$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x131c…6816backed Yes | 23c | 209.23$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847e…a2b5backed Yes | 10c | 208.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 204$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.69 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e68…035abacked No | 59c | 201.93$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked No | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…efd6backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7028…e0e9backed No | 79c | 193.46$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 9c | 192.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c86…0b14backed No | 52c | 190.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.74 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 20c | 189.03$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 71c | 180$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.1 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x52c7…1c61backed Yes | 20c | 163.78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.44 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…895dbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0267…620dbacked Yes | 14c | 150.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 27c | 139.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92bd…a35ebacked Yes | 23c | 127.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.58 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +42%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46df…ad9fbacked Yes | 9c | 122.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…438cbacked Yes | 11c | 116.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +164.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4f…4745backed Yes | 24c | 102.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…a495backed Yes | 20c | 95.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 48 | 31.3%15 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9453…1a48backed Yes | 22c | 92.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 18c | 92.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 92.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xcda6…3f07backed Yes | 35c | 80.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad0…1153backed No | 79c | 76.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 307 | 18.6%57 W · 250 L | -17.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49ae…f3babacked No | 78c | 74.54$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…db52backed Yes | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…4916backed Yes | 50c | 68.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 320 | 23.4%75 W · 245 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b6…ef81backed Yes | 19c | 64.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed Yes | 21c | 62.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 19cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…0acabacked No | 62c | 62.22$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.37 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62f3…7082backed No | 65c | 61.06$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc6…eba4backed Yes | 23c | 55.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…6038backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 46c | 49.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.63 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 77c | 42.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed No | 78c | 39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +23%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1162…15f3backed Yes | 45c | 38.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 31.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c77…6fb8backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f2…ac3cbacked No | 63c | 29$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dfd…ae8abacked No | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63f1…6272backed No | 61c | 27.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 116 | 28.4%33 W · 83 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057f…94a3backed No | 64c | 26.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca6a…a71dbacked No | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 38cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…30b7backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed No | 78c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 1,277 | 24.3%310 W · 967 L | -58.2wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0d…fbb3backed Yes | 53c | 20.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…f2e8backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +114.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab8…0eebbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…a9cabacked No | 75c | 19.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…e8c8backed No | 56c | 19.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 20?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $95 by March 20?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.