TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,204

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,204 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes14c2,897$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.0130238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60fc…03b0backed Yes26c2,385$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$631425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes12c2,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.73740.5%15 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+272.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes15c1,885$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.1729747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbaa3…6721backed Yes10c1,827$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.391225%3 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91be…2641backed Yes41c1,501$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c0…136abacked Yes20c1,395$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.231010%1 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.19per pick29cpaid-70.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes6c1,246$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.68932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe94b…5abebacked Yes10c1,140$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.915020.7%31 W · 119 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed Yes26c1,139$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc6d…9f36backed No71c999.99$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.96450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xeaa5…7ac4backed Yes10c999.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x770e…7640backed Yes21c806.53$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.693315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick17cpaid+33.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd41…3796backed No59c755$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71f6…ea40backed No59c746$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes24c744.66$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.348617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No74c737.14$544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.153154.8%17 W · 14 L+3.1wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+0.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8929…733ebacked Yes19c694.31$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.082123.8%5 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick16cpaid+10.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed No74c673$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.98366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked No48c606.82$293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.643070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ca7…8195backed Yes12c533.92$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.073033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick27cpaid-27%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f0c…f746backed No66c527.59$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.04425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-61.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc384…807ebacked Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce8…86b3backed No70c493.75$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.66366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked No74c466$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.163100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+93.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb959…709ebacked No77c456.41$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.41616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick44cpaid-78.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43e2…5fbdbacked Yes13c427.22$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.054645.7%21 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes8c410.44$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.791884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f6b…2a84backed Yes10c384.55$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked Yes28c340.85$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.09128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-69.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2651…3471backed Yes48c338.84$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.7430443.4%132 W · 172 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No80c333.55$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.1723846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4eab…808ebacked No66c322.7$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2feb…b324backed Yes33c300$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-43.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb08b…4b55backed Yes17c295.66$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.7850%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes27c295.54$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1134534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5be1…ace5backed No67c291.07$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.74650%3 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+187.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x071c…9b75backed Yes12c281.26$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.372722.2%6 W · 21 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid+20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4631…3ff9backed Yes21c273.29$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.072931%9 W · 20 L+1.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+20.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc63a…26a0backed No65c264.37$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.45742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-41.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes7c261.14$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.675635.7%20 W · 36 L+6.2wins+0.11per pick25cpaid-10.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xb581…0308backed Yes19c245.72$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.411136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a53…7a6fbacked No66c211.78$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.52927.6%8 W · 21 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x131c…6816backed Yes23c209.23$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.752951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x847e…a2b5backed Yes10c208.3$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.83633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-28.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No74c204$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.691,04834.5%362 W · 686 L-94.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-29.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6e68…035abacked No59c201.93$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked No51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9814849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x147c…efd6backed Yes31c200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622123.8%5 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-64.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x05dd…e2afbacked Yes31c199.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6214143.3%61 W · 80 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7028…e0e9backed No79c193.46$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.063070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes9c192.51$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.771212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c86…0b14backed No52c190.74$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+18.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes20c189.03$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6618637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No71c180$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.11580%12 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+36.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x52c7…1c61backed Yes20c163.78$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.443745.9%17 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-28.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf861…895dbacked Yes25c160$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0267…620dbacked Yes14c150.76$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.77120%0 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed Yes27c139.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.21457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92bd…a35ebacked Yes23c127.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.584866.7%32 W · 16 L+6.0wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+42%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x46df…ad9fbacked Yes9c122.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+63.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b62…438cbacked Yes11c116.34$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.83268.8%22 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.19per pick49cpaid+164.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xeb4f…4745backed Yes24c102.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.65955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick40cpaid+15%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf60…79c5backed No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5fd…36d1backed Yes29c99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.712250%11 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+47.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed Yes20c95.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.344831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes22c92.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205048%24 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes18c92.71$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7234.3%1 W · 22 L-3.0wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-73.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes13c92.28$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9321815.6%34 W · 184 L-37.8wins-0.17per pick33cpaid-68.9%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0xcda6…3f07backed Yes35c80.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.353941%16 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad0…1153backed No79c76.06$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.066100%6 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+62.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes19c75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2530718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ae…f3babacked No78c74.54$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.651060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xafce…db52backed Yes42c71.43$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+43.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab41…4916backed Yes50c68.2$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.11060%6 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+37.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xff7c…b233backed Yes44c65$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.632023.4%75 W · 245 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09b6…ef81backed Yes19c64.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0275…b936backed Yes21c62.45$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.39372.7%1 W · 36 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick19cpaid-87.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x30f6…0acabacked No62c62.22$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.371668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.17per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62f3…7082backed No65c61.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8cc6…eba4backed Yes23c55.26$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ca…6038backed Yes39c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+22.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes46c49.42$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.63616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-72.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd7ba…1349backed No77c42.85$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.85785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick78cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ba…33b9backed No78c39$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.433969.2%27 W · 12 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+23%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1162…15f3backed Yes45c38.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.36616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick38cpaid-74.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes40c31.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.691,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c77…6fb8backed Yes41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick54cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8f2…ac3cbacked No63c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.73425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-60.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dfd…ae8abacked No56c28.57$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.57475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x63f1…6272backed No61c27.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6811628.4%33 W · 83 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-47.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x057f…94a3backed No64c26.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.571827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-39.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xca6a…a71dbacked No56c25$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.24per pick38cpaid-74.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3483…30b7backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa540…0b43backed No78c24.21$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.221,27724.3%310 W · 967 L-58.2wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7d0d…fbb3backed Yes53c20.75$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113562.9%22 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick58cpaid+0.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1348…f2e8backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.64100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+114.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3ab8…0eebbacked No54c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.23100%3 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc323…a9cabacked No75c19.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.95366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b13…e8c8backed No56c19.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.64333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.