TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf900…cd0c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
189
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Premier League, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Premier League at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 37.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT9832.7%32 W · 66 L-14.9wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-46%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
Middle East — the 98 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$234Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$191.41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$1,485Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$836.62
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$5,747Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$5,746.82
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$6,719Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$6,719.14
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$2,641Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,640.95
US x Iran meeting by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$352Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$352.37
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$10,532Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$10,532.05
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$2,610Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,609.52
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.04
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$25,999Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25,999.49
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$5,014Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+51.3%+$2,572.7
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$3,008Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$834.63
US x Iran meeting by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,017Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$291.69
Will France strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$453Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+29.3%+$132.69
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$4,046Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+25.3%+$1,024.53
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$6,133Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+283%+$17,353.44
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$11,482Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$5,862.8
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$17,757Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+98.9%+$17,567.05
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.44
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$509Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+45.4%+$231.16
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$4,254Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+27%+$1,148.04
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$31.05
Military action against Iran continues through March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$5,453Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+39.2%+$2,139.95
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$225
Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$3,729Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$3,728.55
Showing 25 of 98 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT3070%21 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$2,488Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+55.7%+$1,386.79
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,805Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+32.2%+$1,225.78
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,141Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+69.7%+$794.9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$602Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+30.6%+$184.08
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$6,529Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37.1%+$2,423.35
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$5,839Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$3,056.86
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $65 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$13.15
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$177Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+62%+$109.97
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$508Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$156.72
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$4,937Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+65.2%+$3,217.79
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10,695Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+98.2%+$10,499.56
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14,642Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$14,642.13
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$293Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+107%+$313.64
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$708Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$231.18
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$757Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$756.78
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.67
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$19.04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT+27.4%+$81.11
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$930Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$929.87
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by March 13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by March 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$790Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+81.2%+$641.03
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $90 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13,905Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13,904.61
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$5,285Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+27.7%+$1,463.85
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$66.78
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $70 by end of February?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$979Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+47.3%+$463.51
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$1,581Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$1,580.53
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$79.63
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+25.2%+$31.88
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 19 to February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$84
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$668Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+25.7%+$171.44
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 14 to February 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$101Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+25%+$25.28
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$80.06
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$78.78
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$51.51
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$44.06
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11.98
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$20.66
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11.3
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$152.46
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST-100%-$126.8
All 15 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+113.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Premier League — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-02-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+148%+$134.37
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-02-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+213.2%+$115.97
Fulham FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$28.61
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$106Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$106
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC vs. Newcastle United FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST+92.3%+$144
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 18, 2026, EST-100%-$116
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+75.4%+$24.07
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-01-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+42.9%+$9.19
Will Liverpool FC vs. Burnley FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+51.2%+$19.95
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+809.1%+$236.68
All 10 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.25per pick39cpaid-58.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.37per pick62cpaid-49.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye release BULLY by March 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$1,024Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+76.8%+$785.89
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved May 2, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$1,345Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+58.9%+$791.91
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$44
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 27, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Nebraska Cornhuskers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$2,069Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$2,069.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $190 end of February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$51.77
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.