Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9677deef088d5e53dde50019b59903bddcc2f1e999df8215ce851febdb30684
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $81,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20fb…e5fabacked No | 53c | 5,838$3,103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,103.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 53c | 3,414$1,810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,604.17 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed No | 0c | 3,134$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 63c | 3,089$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,155.6 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 31c | 2,172$674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$674.33 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked No | 9c | 2,061$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.87 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,641$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,357.13 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed No | 4c | 1,425$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 22c | 1,400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,092 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.84 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 26c | 1,214$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…4cc6backed Yes | 40c | 1,060$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…d680backed Yes | 24c | 1,052$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.57 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 30c | 1,001$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.23 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 10c | 978$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01f…06f5backed Yes | 41c | 853.61$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 831$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed Yes | 24c | 824.29$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.49 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed No | 68c | 755.98$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 3c | 747.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 34c | 742.77$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.77 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bcc…90c9backed Yes | 47c | 655.41$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 25c | 650$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…cd0cbacked No | 75c | 630.41$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8240…edebbacked No | 12c | 573.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed No | 55c | 544.9$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.18 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…9149backed Yes | 49c | 537.89$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.07 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 51c | 492.19$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.83 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…71b7backed Yes | 34c | 459.65$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.65 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 39c | 458.77$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.4 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 32c | 445.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.24 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 76c | 422.35$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.02 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 41c | 418.74$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.19 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 32c | 418.71$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.61 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e4…3c39backed Yes | 66c | 385.14$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e38…a018backed No | 67c | 371.51$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed No | 12c | 362.11$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -71%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 36c | 340.37$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.92 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde1c…fb66backed No | 63c | 339.27$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…e039backed Yes | 33c | 335.78$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.53 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed Yes | 40c | 288.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.87 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 35c | 288.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.51 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 9c | 275$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes | 59c | 260$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.9 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfa…fc37backed Yes | 43c | 234.15$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +232.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…6fcbbacked Yes | 43c | 204.11$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8740…9c48backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…fcc1backed Yes | 27c | 188.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked No | 6c | 180.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 35c | 175.59$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.52 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5a41backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 55c | 141.7$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d5…be20backed Yes | 26c | 140.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.03 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 14c | 138.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x917d…d5dfbacked No | 35c | 135.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4262…2093backed No | 74c | 134.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 13c | 127.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x025e…8f22backed No | 33c | 124.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.6wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -80.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 11c | 123.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad44…9d5cbacked Yes | 37c | 120$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…4dd8backed Yes | 20c | 119.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe030…dde8backed Yes | 17c | 117.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 20c | 114.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.33 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41cb…a5dfbacked No | 69c | 113$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.29 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Yes | 23c | 110.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…31e2backed Yes | 21c | 110.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 59c | 107.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.26 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed No | 64c | 104.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 100.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.72 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf401…5cacbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2090…d42ebacked No | 21c | 85.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd346…4c48backed Yes | 28c | 79.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.73 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 38c | 76.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81cf…1094backed Yes | 58c | 72.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +73.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…3279backed Yes | 31c | 59.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…e8c6backed Yes | 26c | 57.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.21 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 19c | 55.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…ef57backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked Yes | 59c | 51.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77f…0067backed No | 79c | 50.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…4f02backed Yes | 31c | 45.59$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…c3b4backed Yes | 56c | 45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecd…9d2ebacked Yes | 44c | 40.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 60c | 38.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x184f…a670backed No | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…c391backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 67c | 32.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…39b1backed No | 58c | 32.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.77 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53cf…0479backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddf…4479backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…5124backed No | 70c | 28.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 78c | 25.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee4…9798backed Yes | 54c | 25.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b4…e175backed No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x417b…18d3backed No | 62c | 23.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?this page
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.