Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c2ef296922e27610b6b9a32600a672d728774afeb9af4253298c7bf2e02b521

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 25, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $107,145
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $103,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,145 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes	53c	7,476$3,939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,939.44	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes	19c	3,336$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$621.4	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…6fcbbacked Yes	10c	2,982$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.97	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes	17c	2,919$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$509.94	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb2b…1921backed No	80c	2,847$2,272 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$574.88	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-5.6wins	-0.25per pick	48cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	37-0.12 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed Yes	3c	2,171$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.35	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x502d…9cd5backed No	52c	2,001$1,036 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$964.95	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,951$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.92	532	7%37 W · 495 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1861…2423backed Yes	72c	1,826$1,321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,320.86	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,730$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.23	143	2.1%3 W · 140 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2d3…9af1backed Yes	13c	1,628$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.06	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562f…b14dbacked Yes	78c	1,459$1,142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,141.52	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	42cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes	35c	1,377$488 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.39	48	25%12 W · 36 L	-4.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90a7…9e54backed Yes	14c	1,354$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.85	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	9c	1,261$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.44	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1de7…1e31backed No	43c	1,216$525 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690.59	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	6c	1,168$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.52	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes	17c	1,136$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	7c	1,062$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.2	85	10.6%9 W · 76 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes	28c	976.65$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.94	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes	49c	849.88$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.67	129	37.2%48 W · 81 L	+9.5wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No	48c	821.39$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$430.93	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc351…08f7backed Yes	19c	809$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No	21c	759.98$160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$600.38	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes	4c	721.61$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.28	43	2.3%1 W · 42 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-73%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71fb…9b65backed Yes	13c	624$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x851d…4781backed Yes	78c	613.49$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.73	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.42per pick	42cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	34c	576.13$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.56	90	34.4%31 W · 59 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d42…4f02backed Yes	16c	570.67$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.28	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa92d…208abacked Yes	27c	527.28$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf633…c684backed No	75c	507.63$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.45	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	68cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c7c…1439backed Yes	8c	504.25$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed Yes	28c	460$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.2	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes	19c	450.59$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.92	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No	72c	437.55$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.21	30	60%18 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	3c	409.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.48	103	9.7%10 W · 93 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	399.96$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.84	107	4.7%5 W · 102 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75c0…65d5backed Yes	4c	396$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6560…e164backed Yes	33c	373.29$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.62	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52d5…be20backed Yes	30c	364.89$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.89	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe993…7321backed Yes	28c	354.1$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde4f…2cffbacked Yes	12c	337.04$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.46	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbd…6e72backed Yes	18c	311.11$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-2.7wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed Yes	77c	299.99$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.49	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa78d…130bbacked Yes	52c	290.2$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a16…ad87backed Yes	8c	269.36$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa372…88fdbacked Yes	27c	260$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.79	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes	78c	257.81$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Yes	69c	257.55$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.08	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b79…360fbacked Yes	13c	254$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes	36c	222$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.02	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No	20c	219.57$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$175.54	74	62.2%46 W · 28 L	+7.6wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes	26c	219.49$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.67	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes	10c	217.11$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.94	38	65.8%25 W · 13 L	+5.6wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+38%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed No	71c	217.08$154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.76	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	+1.4wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe98…2566backed No	79c	216.44$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.44	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+80.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe2c1…d83dbacked Yes	80c	205.98$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8308…9f5bbacked No	53c	200.24$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.24	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.47per pick	53cpaid	+87.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc93c…52f1backed Yes	26c	192.59$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	118	39.8%47 W · 71 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed Yes	13c	192$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e93…df22backed Yes	10c	177.05$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No	71c	171$121 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.59	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	27c	170.28$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.49	294	16%47 W · 247 L	-53.7wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes	33c	166.37$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.3	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.15per pick	38cpaid	-60%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed Yes	56c	163.63$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.93	28	71.4%20 W · 8 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes	36c	160.32$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	55	27.3%15 W · 40 L	-3.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x332c…ae23backed Yes	71c	158.8$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	38cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb49…c150backed No	72c	156.31$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.88	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa01e…6cd2backed Yes	27c	149.41$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c50…22fdbacked Yes	15c	140$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+20.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04a…39a9backed Yes	34c	136.53$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.86	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No	25c	135.98$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.03	102	41.2%42 W · 60 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes	31c	126.67$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.97	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-71%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6464…7899backed Yes	18c	121$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.63	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee00…34fdbacked Yes	30c	120.86$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.1	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc37b…9b85backed No	69c	120$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.68	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4835…ebb2backed Yes	62c	118.88$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.62per pick	62cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No	61c	107.07$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.88	22	77.3%17 W · 5 L	+3.4wins	+0.15per pick	62cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No	27c	105.66$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.14	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes	22c	105.22$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x08e4…3c39backed No	50c	104.34$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.27	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40dd…6a93backed Yes	29c	103.84$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be1…3feabacked Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.36per pick	14cpaid	+233.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f07…3f04backed No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-30%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No	64c	99.99$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+55.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x540a…64c9backed Yes	31c	96.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.25	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.4wins	+0.14per pick	46cpaid	+28.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d52…f88abacked Yes	43c	94.19$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.24	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes	15c	93.33$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No	20c	90.68$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.25	263	18.3%48 W · 215 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	76c	87.75$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.4	63	41.3%26 W · 37 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e6b…7cf3backed Yes	29c	87.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c7…1d9bbacked No	78c	83.58$65 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.58	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	70cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x598b…f296backed No	50c	78.4$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.2	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa695…c8a4backed Yes	16c	75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes	21c	70$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c02…afd5backed Yes	23c	66.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab3…07bcbacked Yes	18c	55.62$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5177…1020backed No	75c	52.56$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.33	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+34%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66b7…da10backed Yes	29c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No	31c	47.91$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.91	7	71.4%5 W · 2 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	59cpaid	+38%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?this page
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event