Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fa0e659a02c6dbbb1af523068d777e8eeb12022f466b935bc4c7e9b30ee0c83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,550
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,739
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,550 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f31…3279backed Yes | 3c | 3,861$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 3,123$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.17 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c28…7d1fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,080$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4424…4cc6backed Yes | 2c | 2,545$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 2,401$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,790$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.74 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xac51…a068backed Yes | 1c | 1,789$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,543$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.12 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 11c | 1,500$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.27 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…10a6backed Yes | 6c | 1,500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 7c | 1,410$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 6c | 1,193$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.85 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 7c | 1,071$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d07bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,050$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 17c | 980.4$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…fcc1backed Yes | 5c | 962.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 15cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 5c | 800$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…8a9dbacked Yes | 10c | 786.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.16per pick | 18cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 771.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…d680backed Yes | 7c | 722.01$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 4c | 700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 3c | 641.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 6c | 558.69$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe728…9d87backed Yes | 5c | 553$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02c9…4773backed Yes | 5c | 551.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3b…6b17backed Yes | 12c | 500$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 499.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 466.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.94 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 463.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86d7…5c56backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…71b7backed Yes | 7c | 392.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01e4…2d6abacked Yes | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96d4…9937backed Yes | 5c | 245.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…e039backed Yes | 18c | 240.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 12c | 212.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed Yes | 9c | 210.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…2310backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b8…a462backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 10c | 180$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 9c | 170.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…d9cabacked Yes | 7c | 165$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497e…1161backed Yes | 10c | 163.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Yes | 8c | 150$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85e…3c77backed Yes | 7c | 143.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 10c | 140.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4575…9628backed Yes | 10c | 118.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d2…9f8fbacked Yes | 10c | 105.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe030…dde8backed Yes | 19c | 102.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8f…d351backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…ba6cbacked Yes | 10c | 99.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…542dbacked Yes | 12c | 88.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?this page
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.