Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4492f3511edd8f41c11ee69815588bbf5c3f580782fc063443f0311f8b95bee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,408
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 6,659$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.18 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 24c | 2,585$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6105…f572backed Yes | 1c | 1,397$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 72c | 1,305$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.04 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…d680backed Yes | 22c | 905.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 804$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed No | 75c | 706.56$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.15 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…c684backed No | 72c | 545.8$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.99 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0de…fc0dbacked Yes | 34c | 537.7$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed Yes | 7c | 525.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 23c | 480$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked Yes | 15c | 455$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b63…bb9cbacked Yes | 15c | 455$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…93f4backed Yes | 8c | 427$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 406.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d66…fc54backed Yes | 18c | 403$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 27c | 373.81$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed No | 80c | 320$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…71b7backed Yes | 13c | 312.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd346…4c48backed Yes | 8c | 305.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.15 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.8 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x760a…c0cbbacked No | 74c | 270.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes | 12c | 246.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b2…8619backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 80c | 199.98$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 76c | 171.54$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.53 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7022…f64ebacked Yes | 13c | 150.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c8…7677backed Yes | 8c | 150.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d9…8483backed No | 68c | 147.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.72 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 58cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 22c | 147.66$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56d5…10a6backed Yes | 8c | 143$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 71c | 139.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x332c…ae23backed Yes | 22c | 130.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 130.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…37c7backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…8fb7backed Yes | 12c | 101.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9370…9e88backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 83.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked No | 67c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x540a…64c9backed No | 74c | 43.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…d66ebacked No | 69c | 43.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…e344backed No | 71c | 42.08$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…f842backed No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a6…4853backed No | 73c | 35.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…ef57backed No | 67c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…ec32backed No | 69c | 28.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9e…0db0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64b…3052backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ac…990dbacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…4240backed No | 57c | 19.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?this page
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.