Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xddcd0c9ed4b7d1b2d42b9cd60d556cd80335a9035a8b5eb2e5b4fd18b4ad71cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,430
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2106…fa73backed Yes | 13c | 1,568$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…ccf2backed Yes | 18c | 1,183$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a39…3859backed Yes | 18c | 1,143$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb389…8d11backed Yes | 17c | 917.82$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Yes | 13c | 857.49$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.61 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked Yes | 16c | 720$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb8…2524backed Yes | 20c | 661.65$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8d…31e4backed Yes | 50c | 606.15$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 50c | 604.23$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.86 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b6…83d8backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…2b32backed Yes | 18c | 549.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02e6…56b6backed Yes | 11c | 532.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed Yes | 50c | 521.12$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.56 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 16c | 370$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f0…e266backed Yes | 13c | 298.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 12c | 270.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.43 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…335fbacked Yes | 9c | 270$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…cd55backed Yes | 10c | 263$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 10c | 253.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4de4…5dd5backed Yes | 13c | 235.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8737…2bffbacked Yes | 10c | 224$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8a…e193backed Yes | 13c | 206$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…995abacked Yes | 11c | 202$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf245…1df4backed Yes | 8c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 19c | 197$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.43 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc2…d2afbacked Yes | 16c | 192.21$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf25b…82d0backed Yes | 9c | 150$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ef…90f0backed Yes | 14c | 126$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x382a…b590backed Yes | 19c | 114$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed No | 53c | 111.05$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee21…3721backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 122 | 25.4%31 W · 91 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad4…fa20backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffea…06c0backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 70c | 71.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe46f…7e60backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 26c | 42.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…305cbacked Yes | 50c | 25.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb046…39d9backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…c3b4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.