Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x198245bdb1583f8f00664ba7a7425800d3d7441abcd8c85b6521ee19fa8a6600

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $51,139
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $52,646

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,139 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0fdd…0a35backed No	78c	5,784$4,534 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,249.58	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-63.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…6fcbbacked Yes	19c	1,885$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.94	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.12per pick	45cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes	3c	1,787$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes	15c	1,300$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.22	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56d5…10a6backed Yes	6c	1,230$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.93	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	11c	939.39$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.61	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-78.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	8c	820.39$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.61	85	10.6%9 W · 76 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	31c	775.43$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.12	94	13.8%13 W · 81 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-38%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes	15c	740.26$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.16	48	25%12 W · 36 L	-4.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5554…de6ebacked Yes	41c	739.32$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	710$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	143	2.1%3 W · 140 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb49…c150backed Yes	23c	698.14$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.91	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	38cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e88…8fb7backed Yes	19c	543.16$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.9	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.8wins	-0.14per pick	29cpaid	-63.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes	19c	515.04$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.15	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	15c	513.98$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.48	532	7%37 W · 495 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d42…4f02backed Yes	31c	509.93$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.42	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes	41c	429.95$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.72	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	42cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes	31c	427.36$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.93	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	42cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x08e4…3c39backed Yes	12c	401.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes	10c	385$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.94	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	366.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	130	2.3%3 W · 127 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-68.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9cd…17acbacked Yes	28c	360.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes	19c	354.46$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x502d…9cd5backed No	78c	350.26$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78.78	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cbd…e60abacked Yes	29c	346.64$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	29cpaid	+74.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9c…7728backed Yes	6c	335$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.61	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	14c	331.79$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.55	263	18.3%48 W · 215 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bcc…90c9backed Yes	32c	315.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.72	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…32c1backed No	80c	306.36$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.96	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No	70c	301.62$210 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.55	26	38.5%10 W · 16 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+45.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4518…1cacbacked Yes	13c	299.98$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	64	37.5%24 W · 40 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	12c	285.83$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	118	40.7%48 W · 70 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa695…c8a4backed Yes	16c	270.12$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.22	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee21…3721backed No	78c	250.04$195 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55.1	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	47cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcf2…c73bbacked Yes	15c	250$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb07…2e36backed Yes	20c	249.68$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d12…ab54backed Yes	7c	249.33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes	29c	227.35$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.97	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3431…2fe2backed Yes	15c	200.66$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.02	18	55.6%10 W · 8 L	-1.6wins	-0.09per pick	65cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed Yes	19c	186.84$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	28	71.4%20 W · 8 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	56cpaid	+20.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes	15c	162.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-37%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd04a…39a9backed Yes	25c	160.28$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa01e…6cd2backed Yes	29c	149.62$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.14	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d5…be20backed Yes	14c	144.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.96	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x80b5…b47cbacked No	70c	143.49$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.49	4	100%4 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	76cpaid	+32.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes	12c	138.46$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No	64c	134.4$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.38	172	32%55 W · 117 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04e6…3774backed Yes	17c	118.6$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	54cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	21c	117.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.08	394	29.4%116 W · 278 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…34fdbacked Yes	13c	114.29$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab79…f2edbacked Yes	16c	113.12$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2779…62dfbacked Yes	28c	107.38$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.95	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90b9…1951backed Yes	11c	103$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3925…c094backed Yes	11c	101$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	+4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9934…6078backed No	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	63cpaid	-14%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	294	16%47 W · 247 L	-53.7wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0x1f24…97c3backed Yes	22c	99.98$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75d1…7a5fbacked No	63c	98.82$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.8	65	47.7%31 W · 34 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked No	62c	88.79$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.88	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.5wins	-0.24per pick	58cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbaaa…7e9dbacked Yes	20c	87.95$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.59	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…e344backed Yes	14c	86.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.15	5	40%2 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Yes	44c	84$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.2	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes	21c	80.07$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	-2.7wins	-0.10per pick	38cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes	22c	78.66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.23	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes	23c	72.82$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.78	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33d3…1766backed Yes	28c	72.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.17per pick	16cpaid	+176.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…9798backed Yes	25c	70.7$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x06cb…622cbacked Yes	22c	58.55$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe030…dde8backed Yes	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc908…e763backed Yes	37c	49.43$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-54.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdb4f…5c9abacked Yes	25c	49.03$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No	66c	48$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.1	37	37.8%14 W · 23 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe362…602bbacked No	80c	40$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.2	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	47cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36fa…1125backed Yes	38c	39$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.82	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed No	67c	38$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.65	23	82.6%19 W · 4 L	+3.2wins	+0.14per pick	69cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7a8…9c50backed No	70c	27.87$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.36	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.10per pick	57cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	90	34.4%31 W · 59 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?this page
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event