Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf83a9761389a0d229324eb425a31b9ed1df9b304d13074e7ffb865c2c90ede7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,941
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,941 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x562f…b14dbacked No | 4c | 11,389$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.67 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 74c | 7,539$5,581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,957.53 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 2,484$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.11 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…1083backed No | 76c | 2,397$1,819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,819.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 1,921$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 26c | 1,688$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.52 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 8c | 1,543$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 33c | 1,459$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.95 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x869a…d680backed Yes | 27c | 1,402$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.07 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…396bbacked No | 1c | 1,296$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3f…e9a4backed No | 2c | 1,242$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 49c | 1,227$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.7 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked No | 28c | 1,200$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 21c | 921.53$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.85 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 14c | 884.28$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.7 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…e60abacked Yes | 29c | 768.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes | 17c | 658$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +488.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed No | 20c | 599.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 64c | 594.8$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.41 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb60d…bfb5backed No | 31c | 552.11$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.3 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 3c | 539.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbe…8f37backed No | 79c | 508.32$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 68cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 3c | 500.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf633…c684backed No | 76c | 484.85$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.32 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked Yes | 78c | 477.37$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.73 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed Yes | 39c | 456.28$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.77 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed No | 52c | 411.17$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3458…2356backed No | 76c | 404.68$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 400$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5b52…d558backed No | 77c | 395$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85ba…e33abacked No | 79c | 299.99$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c74…86bfbacked No | 4c | 298.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 297.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d42…4f02backed Yes | 61c | 285.78$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaea…673cbacked Yes | 36c | 274.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.27 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5a41backed Yes | 27c | 269.14$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.16 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes | 22c | 264.06$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.71 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked No | 70c | 219.98$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.19 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb713…9126backed No | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 71c | 179.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Yes | 73c | 168.33$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 15c | 161.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 159.92$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.36 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca16…f878backed Yes | 74c | 149.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 43cpaid | -80.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd57f…8966backed No | 73c | 145.79$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +128%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9036…fae2backed No | 7c | 142.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 31c | 140.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.21 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…15dbbacked No | 72c | 139.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed Yes | 36c | 138.68$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 78c | 132.2$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 13c | 128.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3003…efa3backed No | 78c | 122.52$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.57 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes | 17c | 122$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d2…1feebacked Yes | 27c | 115$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa83a…34d6backed Yes | 25c | 112.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -37%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 40c | 112.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.41 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x5e88…8fb7backed Yes | 29c | 94.89$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…5dcbbacked No | 67c | 94.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 28c | 88.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.3wins | +0.25per pick | 44cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 84.52$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.05 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 26c | 76.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbad6…9963backed No | 80c | 69.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.4 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeedb…59e5backed Yes | 75c | 55.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e47…08bcbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…eb72backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 68c | 47.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 67c | 46.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d4…cf9fbacked Yes | 27c | 45.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +83.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23eb…c516backed No | 50c | 39.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…39a9backed No | 80c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3181…737abacked No | 78c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…1d9bbacked No | 66c | 30.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…cf43backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…ef57backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 78c | 27.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 69c | 27.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 76c | 24.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…c3b4backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 66c | 18.18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?this page
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.