TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,941
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$80,749

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,941 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x562f…b14dbacked No4c11,389$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.671154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes74c7,539$5,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.538224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c2,484$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.115327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…1083backed No76c2,397$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.23475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No1c1,921$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.49535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No26c1,688$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.524151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No8c1,543$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010241.2%42 W · 60 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes33c1,459$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.953928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x869a…d680backed Yes27c1,402$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.071811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3af4…396bbacked No1c1,296$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c3f…e9a4backed No2c1,242$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes49c1,227$607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$619.72119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e80…f17abacked No28c1,200$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.671540%6 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No21c921.53$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.852711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No14c884.28$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.72263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5cbd…e60abacked Yes29c768.84$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+74.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked Yes17c658$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.83per pick17cpaid+488.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No20c599.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201717.6%3 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-20.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes64c594.8$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.414825%12 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb60d…bfb5backed No31c552.11$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3560%3 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No3c539.46$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.861432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No79c508.32$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400520%1 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick68cpaid-71.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No3c500.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.62864.7%4 W · 82 L-4.9wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-87%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed No3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf633…c684backed No76c484.85$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.321181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked Yes78c477.37$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.737462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x57e0…8761backed Yes39c456.28$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.771233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502d…9cd5backed No52c411.17$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.62343.5%10 W · 13 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3458…2356backed No76c404.68$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid+16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked No4c400$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c400$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30826835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x5b52…d558backed No77c395$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.1140%0 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x85ba…e33abacked No79c299.99$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.9960%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c74…86bfbacked No4c298.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No5c297.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.371039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d42…4f02backed Yes61c285.78$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.46837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes36c274.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.272429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40e3…5a41backed Yes27c269.14$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.16650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes22c264.06$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.711414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd182…941ebacked No70c219.98$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.19742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick58cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb713…9126backed No32c199.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No71c179.03$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.59475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x50f7…7272backed Yes73c168.33$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.03450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No15c161.33$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.951833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes32c159.92$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.3639429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes74c149.98$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.99714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-80.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd57f…8966backed No73c145.79$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.11475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+128%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9036…fae2backed No7c142.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3950%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked No31c140.43$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.215743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a1…15dbbacked No72c139.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed Yes36c138.68$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.232433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes78c132.2$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.59034.4%31 W · 59 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-39.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No13c128.47$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7726318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No78c122.52$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.574452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Yes17c122$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.26728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75d2…1feebacked Yes27c115$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes25c112.6$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.63625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No40c112.25$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4129416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5e88…8fb7backed Yes29c94.89$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.41315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7db5…5dcbbacked No67c94.31$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes28c88.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.861369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No73c84.52$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.0541736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes26c76.86$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64a3…3b6fbacked No80c70$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbad6…9963backed No80c69.61$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.62871.4%20 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+20.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9422…f273backed Yes28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.43865.8%25 W · 13 L+5.6wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed Yes75c55.4$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e47…08bcbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35850%4 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes22c50$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4451…eb72backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+68.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed No43c49.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.44329.4%3 W · 29 L-7.9wins-0.25per pick34cpaid-84.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No68c47.06$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.157843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No67c46.47$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.246341.3%26 W · 37 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91d4…cf9fbacked Yes27c45.39$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+83.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23eb…c516backed No50c39.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.61771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+56.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04a…39a9backed No80c39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.21844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3181…737abacked No78c35$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7c7…1d9bbacked No66c30.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aab…cf43backed No72c30$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed No67c30$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.952382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No78c27.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.983759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No69c27.63$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1016…c866backed No76c24.72$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8850%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x73aa…c3b4backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1887.5%7 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.18per pick70cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked No66c18.18$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124427.3%12 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.