TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$22,103
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,103 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes15c1,212$185 inLost-$184.538224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed Yes6c1,192$73 inLost-$73.381540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes5c775.01$36 inLost-$35.751432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf401…5cacbacked Yes9c742.54$63 inLost-$63.13714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+42.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes13c304$41 inLost-$40.835743.9%25 W · 32 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes4c300$13 inLost-$13.1611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes5c299.99$15 inLost-$15.1541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes9c270.23$25 inLost-$24.812711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb4d…94b6backed Yes22c228.34$50 inLost-$50450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+50.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c200$13 inLost-$131074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes6c200$12 inLost-$12510%0 W · 51 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd346…4c48backed Yes12c184.8$22 inLost-$22.222321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed Yes7c173.34$12 inLost-$12.222433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes25c140.37$34 inLost-$34.482119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes10c130$13 inLost-$134427.3%12 W · 32 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes16c113.32$18 inLost-$18.0829416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x5f55…71b7backed Yes19c98.99$19 inLost-$18.811717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes17c95.79$16 inLost-$16.3641736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No78c63.74$50 inWon+$13.749475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes26c50$13 inLost-$136622.7%15 W · 51 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2f6…098bbacked No80c25$20 inWon+$51100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebfc…d8f0backed No78c18.86$15 inWon+$4.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed No77c13$10 inWon+$2.992382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.