TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,214
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,214 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes13c3,865$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x869a…d680backed Yes22c3,579$796 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.11811.1%2 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes1c3,500$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.042119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes1c2,132$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.28535.7%3 W · 50 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,520$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.685327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes2c1,361$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.438510.6%9 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick9cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1861…2423backed Yes10c1,349$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes5c1,298$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6626238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes10c1,113$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.229326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb7c8…7677backed Yes2c1,017$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.560%0 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes10c993.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9417232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes6c954.52$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.23911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c828.34$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.361432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc908…e763backed Yes5c724.31$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-54.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…0287backed Yes14c721.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes6c686.52$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.744829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x01e4…2d6abacked Yes6c675.73$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.25825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-66%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed Yes21c654$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c644.37$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.1126318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x981e…d368backed No79c577$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes8c524.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.47611.6%1 W · 60 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd346…4c48backed Yes9c518.25$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.032321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x314c…69ddbacked Yes22c507.55$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.85633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf633…c684backed No65c462.09$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.091181.8%9 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick68cpaid+21.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed Yes6c461.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.192433.3%8 W · 16 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes5c452.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.464818.8%9 W · 39 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick15cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes13c401.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.461414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f55…71b7backed Yes19c400$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-52.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c399.99$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11074.7%5 W · 102 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes11c360.28$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402429.2%7 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick29cpaid-41.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No79c358.91$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.852711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes10c317.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.56922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-67.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7769…9991backed Yes10c300$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.3541.9%1 W · 53 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-95%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes27c294$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.51414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c287.16$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.461039.7%10 W · 93 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-50.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056c…5066backed Yes4c285.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.42416.7%4 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick30cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes33c236.09$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.914825%12 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked Yes14c210$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.42748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No70c207.05$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.059475.5%71 W · 23 L+10.9wins+0.12per pick64cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes10c206.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No62c161.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.47462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x185f…3649backed Yes7c155.14$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.892828.6%8 W · 20 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e88…8fb7backed Yes8c152.76$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.021315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-63.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9036…fae2backed Yes16c150.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.450%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaaa…7e9dbacked Yes15c140.34$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4251…b98cbacked Yes11c134$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick25cpaid+29.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes12c126.18$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.437843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes23c124.34$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.183625%9 W · 27 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7048…eaa4backed Yes10c122.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes17c118.06$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.0730837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb2d…cd74backed Yes15c117.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1730%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No77c112$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.223759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca16…f878backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.47714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick43cpaid-80.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x286d…37c7backed Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2729416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x64a3…3b6fbacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201586.7%13 W · 2 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick69cpaid+26.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes17c98.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.43944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55d0…f655backed Yes25c98.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.25per pick44cpaid+45.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5742…5e12backed Yes27c97.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0666…9fa3backed No79c97$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x426a…1376backed Yes16c92.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed Yes33c90$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.71540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd57f…8966backed No72c90$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+128%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes14c83.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.36616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick12cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf08…cf97backed Yes13c81.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.82329.4%3 W · 29 L-7.9wins-0.25per pick34cpaid-84.6%equal weight35-0.14 edge/pick
0x69bd…2359backed Yes30c80$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa01e…6cd2backed Yes15c79.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe030…dde8backed Yes25c79.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed No72c77.8$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.13951.3%20 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d42…4f02backed Yes15c72.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes16c62.34$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2141736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb902…31e2backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.12839.3%11 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No79c48.1$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.12263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+19.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed No67c29.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.052382.6%19 W · 4 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+19.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked No73c26.66$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.24544.4%20 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d17…5238backed No79c25.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.443100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+81.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed No76c23.06$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.561833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03d0…d647backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61030%3 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-46.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e7…7c61backed No71c16.9$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.9771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+38%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1431…a949backed No62c16.13$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.133680.6%29 W · 7 L+10.1wins+0.28per pick53cpaid+55.7%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.