Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ef2d50d21ef323dcc620f2a4d55756019ef7b799742127b21cffab0e64872fc

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $90,942
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $96,103

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,942 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa8b3…4484backed No	76c	3,977$3,029 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$948.64	82	24.4%20 W · 62 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd17d…d0eebacked No	68c	3,703$2,503 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,199.68	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84c3…6efebacked Yes	30c	3,061$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$903.81	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes	77c	2,701$2,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,075.43	48	25%12 W · 36 L	-4.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes	25c	1,813$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.95	91	15.4%14 W · 77 L	-7.3wins	-0.08per pick	23cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes	64c	1,682$1,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,073.98	39	28.2%11 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…0287backed No	45c	1,440$654 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$785.6	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.13per pick	21cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	1,416$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.27	143	2.1%3 W · 140 L	-3.5wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked No	58c	1,172$684 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.66	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x502d…9cd5backed Yes	54c	1,108$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.77	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6beb…6ea2backed No	15c	1,000$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$850	37	27%10 W · 27 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d28…4c03backed Yes	31c	999.99$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03cd…d07bbacked Yes	18c	924.87$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.42	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes	24c	900$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218	37	27%10 W · 27 L	-2.4wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99ee…087ebacked Yes	6c	803.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes	20c	779.77$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.72	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeaea…673cbacked Yes	28c	714.71$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	650.87$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.03	532	7%37 W · 495 L	-14.3wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5008…fe38backed Yes	70c	573.96$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x695c…10a1backed No	16c	509$82 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$426.84	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	-3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x08e4…3c39backed Yes	64c	506.62$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.31	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	42cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed No	40c	496.5$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$297.6	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb4d…94b6backed Yes	63c	471.93$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.99	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+50.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	7c	468$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.82	85	10.6%9 W · 76 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	10c	462.51$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.68	112	25.9%29 W · 83 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No	55c	415.8$230 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$185.8	74	62.2%46 W · 28 L	+7.6wins	+0.10per pick	52cpaid	+29.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes	6c	400$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.1	54	1.9%1 W · 53 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-95%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.1	107	4.7%5 W · 102 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	61	1.6%1 W · 60 L	-2.6wins	-0.04per pick	6cpaid	-95.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5081…a309backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	51	0%0 W · 51 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c9…d527backed Yes	51c	394.49$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.12	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	+23.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57e0…8761backed Yes	35c	364.83$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.1	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedd6…8cb9backed Yes	68c	358.74$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.67	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	47cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa83a…34d6backed Yes	64c	351.57$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-4.1wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-37%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xca41…3af9backed No	24c	349.08$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.21	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+1.9wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x40e3…5a41backed Yes	39c	338.45$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes	49c	321.97$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.11	57	43.9%25 W · 32 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x869a…d680backed Yes	36c	319.14$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.47	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-55.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x344f…bd80backed Yes	51c	304.69$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.32	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	36cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f55…71b7backed Yes	23c	299.98$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.4wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x898f…23f0backed Yes	13c	296.51$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.55	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.8wins	+0.46per pick	29cpaid	+781.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf633…c684backed No	52c	288.22$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.16	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	68cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xabbe…8f37backed No	69c	288.08$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.08	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-2.4wins	-0.48per pick	68cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	9c	273.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.08	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	25c	270$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	118	40.7%48 W · 70 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No	23c	250$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.28	116	47.4%55 W · 61 L	+6.0wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+24%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ff2…7c02backed No	50c	249.4$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$124.9	94	75.5%71 W · 23 L	+10.9wins	+0.12per pick	64cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2de4…c8e6backed Yes	10c	246.96$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.81	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked No	35c	245.14$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160.56	90	34.4%31 W · 59 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	38cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No	63c	243.45$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.01	63	41.3%26 W · 37 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	55c	210.89$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.3	394	29.4%116 W · 278 L	-4.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x297a…92e0backed No	18c	209.5$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.53	102	41.2%42 W · 60 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	61c	200$122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$78	268	35.1%94 W · 174 L	-38.4wins	-0.14per pick	49cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0x58ff…7e02backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-64.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5709…22c3backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	86	39.5%34 W · 52 L	+6.2wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x610a…cb39backed Yes	21c	200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.23	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01f…06f5backed No	20c	200$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$160	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e5f…95e2backed Yes	29c	181.26$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.97	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	27cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No	76c	180.65$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.94	41	51.2%21 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	56cpaid	-24.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	10c	180$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.79	417	36.2%151 W · 266 L	-25.2wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf401…5cacbacked Yes	8c	171.84$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48af…89ccbacked Yes	64c	156.29$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed Yes	63c	150$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	30cpaid	-71%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	51c	145.13$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.53	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ca1…f2ebbacked Yes	14c	143.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed No	31c	140$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.15	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	33cpaid	+36.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6b7…d5f3backed Yes	33c	135.63$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-44.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3003…efa3backed No	76c	131.65$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.65	44	52.3%23 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	38c	125.24$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.06	294	16%47 W · 247 L	-53.7wins	-0.18per pick	34cpaid	-65.8%equal weight	31-0.17 edge/pick
0xef03…1fbfbacked Yes	75c	120$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.4	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x91c7…b576backed Yes	25c	116.74$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.91	35	40%14 W · 21 L	-3.4wins	-0.10per pick	50cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0bfb…26a7backed No	64c	116.52$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.52	22	63.6%14 W · 8 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	49cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7db5…5dcbbacked No	68c	111.58$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35.46	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd971…121cbacked Yes	21c	107.77$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.71	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5dc…17d8backed No	38c	106.31$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.31	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.13per pick	30cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	24c	103.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	263	18.3%48 W · 215 L	-14.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xaf1b…8306backed No	15c	100$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.30per pick	37cpaid	+175%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd57f…8966backed No	18c	100$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	52cpaid	+128%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb3d…929fbacked Yes	78c	100$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	68cpaid	-13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8740…9c48backed No	77c	100$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23	4	75%3 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	78cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54d0…d11ebacked No	21c	95.24$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.24	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.79per pick	21cpaid	+376.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No	76c	94.74$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.04	37	59.5%22 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	65cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes	42c	94.31$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.8wins	-0.11per pick	36cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No	74c	91.62$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.97	72	43.1%31 W · 41 L	-5.7wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ecb…643abacked No	40c	87.85$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.82	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+1.1wins	+0.56per pick	44cpaid	+129.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeee4…9798backed Yes	20c	85.51$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	28	28.6%8 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc036…4dd8backed Yes	72c	83.34$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.7wins	+0.10per pick	47cpaid	+57.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	13c	81.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	103	9.7%10 W · 93 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-50.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5ff…05fdbacked No	30c	78.19$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$54.5	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.7wins	+0.57per pick	43cpaid	+145.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes	27c	75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5652…818abacked Yes	32c	67.9$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe728…9d87backed Yes	37c	66.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	38cpaid	+36.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf27f…61dabacked Yes	54c	66.58$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	23	60.9%14 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	60cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b5f…ef57backed No	54c	65.28$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.75	23	82.6%19 W · 4 L	+3.2wins	+0.14per pick	69cpaid	+19.4%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes	23c	65.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5068…838bbacked Yes	31c	64.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4414…7a9fbacked Yes	32c	62.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9370…9e88backed No	37c	60$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.8	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	55cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	19c	59.56$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	86	4.7%4 W · 82 L	-4.9wins	-0.06per pick	10cpaid	-87%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe030…dde8backed No	69c	58.26$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.26	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?this page
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event