TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$32,854
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,175

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,854 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes4c1,254$56 inLost-$55.912711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c7…191abacked Yes22c1,000$220 inLost-$2203727%10 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes15c799.97$120 inLost-$1206639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d5…10a6backed Yes3c587.43$19 inLost-$18.51110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes19c552.24$105 inLost-$1053928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x60fd…89a9backed Yes2c546.12$12 inLost-$11.8432.3%1 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-73%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c516.36$23 inLost-$22.541432.1%3 W · 140 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-72.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed Yes2c492.26$10 inLost-$10.081010%1 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick14cpaid-52.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes3c408.31$12 inLost-$12.422119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdb49…c150backed Yes9c318.54$28 inLost-$28.161346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed Yes19c318.16$60 inLost-$59.844942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Yes19c279$53 inLost-$53.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e0…8761backed Yes16c259.19$42 inLost-$42.151233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x562f…b14dbacked Yes11c179.51$19 inLost-$18.981154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0d9…8483backed No80c162.75$130 inWon+$32.752369.6%16 W · 7 L+2.7wins+0.12per pick58cpaid+34.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes16c112$18 inLost-$17.925327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes20c100.5$20 inLost-$201625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e34…63f7backed No80c100$80 inWon+$201464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+55.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeedb…59e5backed No79c100$79 inWon+$211540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes13c99.99$13 inLost-$13.0229416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xd346…4c48backed Yes11c94.18$10 inLost-$10.362321.7%5 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-46.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0768…caa0backed Yes15c83.53$12 inLost-$12.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dac…dcb9backed No79c79$63 inWon+$16.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04a…39a9backed Yes20c73.39$15 inLost-$151844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c62.03$11 inLost-$10.5426318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x193a…e344backed Yes20c50.5$10 inLost-$10540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-44.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.