TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$33,883
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,574

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,883 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes1c3,909$39 inLost-$39.49425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-64.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8b3…4484backed Yes9c3,500$328 inLost-$327.538224.4%20 W · 62 L+0.4wins0.00per pick24cpaid-56.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes15c1,320$197 inLost-$196.576639.4%26 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56d5…10a6backed Yes1c1,231$11 inLost-$10.87110%0 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1e5…3adcbacked Yes6c524.97$33 inLost-$331414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick11cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes15c466.03$72 inLost-$72.047243.1%31 W · 41 L-5.7wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes15c337$51 inLost-$50.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x562f…b14dbacked Yes15c275.64$42 inLost-$41.781154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick42cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes19c158.21$30 inLost-$301625%4 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-58.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes11c136.95$15 inLost-$14.682711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes16c113.56$18 inLost-$18.0929416%47 W · 247 L-53.7wins-0.18per pick34cpaid-65.8%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes17c109.79$19 inLost-$18.625327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes19c105$20 inLost-$203928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb07…2e36backed Yes22c89.6$20 inLost-$20922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes16c79.76$13 inLost-$12.7626318.3%48 W · 215 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-34.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x626f…cdfabacked Yes24c75$18 inLost-$17.754825%12 W · 36 L-4.9wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-51.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x30a7…02fabacked Yes24c66$16 inLost-$15.842119%4 W · 17 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa660…2b9dbacked No76c50$38 inWon+$12580%4 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffe…4071backed No76c45.36$34 inWon+$10.894151.2%21 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-24.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd04a…39a9backed No80c34$27 inWon+$6.81844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-43.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No77c14$11 inWon+$3.173759.5%22 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.