Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x082d3ef1a5e4179f224ea2b671fe8c210f722e29250885dd44c653a331dcf2c8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x03f7…c0ccbacked Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b3…4484backed Yes | 12c | 2,226$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.52 | 82 | 24.4%20 W · 62 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 24cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,300$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a7…02fabacked Yes | 21c | 939.48$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.1 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 6c | 901.11$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffe…4071backed No | 73c | 599.99$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 529.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…3af9backed Yes | 4c | 514.93$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa92d…208abacked Yes | 14c | 503.67$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 27c | 370$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked Yes | 4c | 340$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 285.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8903…0dc2backed Yes | 13c | 285$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.95 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbb…b9d1backed Yes | 10c | 281.16$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 17c | 263$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 236.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 28c | 225$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.89 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes | 5c | 217.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 90 | 34.4%31 W · 59 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked Yes | 18c | 205.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd346…4c48backed Yes | 6c | 200$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f3f…ec32backed Yes | 21c | 169.23$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 14c | 143.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…178fbacked Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0a…3b4bbacked Yes | 12c | 100.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 77.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…2e36backed Yes | 27c | 74.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 21c | 70.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…3b6fbacked No | 77c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 22c | 60.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed No | 79c | 50.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…2b9dbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…39a9backed No | 80c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…ef57backed No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef87…a71dbacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -3.1wins | -0.24per pick | 70cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?this page
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.