Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3413178feb447fa3a7e22bfe0b8c8f8417c1ae7d7020aa652ed65ce07dab945e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,942
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,942 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…12dabacked Yes | 0c | 10,826$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04a…39a9backed Yes | 0c | 8,901$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.9 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 5,570$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,999$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,529$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.04 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 1c | 3,349$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 10cpaid | +463.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 0c | 3,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed Yes | 1c | 2,752$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 1c | 2,611$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 5c | 2,536$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.41 | 85 | 10.6%9 W · 76 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b1…d1a2backed Yes | 1c | 2,233$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 2,160$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.93 | 143 | 2.1%3 W · 140 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29d7…4c91backed Yes | 1c | 2,048$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5cc…dea4backed No | 73c | 1,991$1,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.75 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03cd…d07bbacked Yes | 52c | 1,970$1,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.87 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x129d…7d2dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,952$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.21 | 66 | 39.4%26 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…9064backed Yes | 1c | 1,901$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 33c | 1,788$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.93 | 91 | 15.4%14 W · 77 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c1…7324backed No | 34c | 1,477$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$976.84 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3302…79c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked Yes | 30c | 1,345$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.84 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,277$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.47 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,098$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,043$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 54 | 1.9%1 W · 53 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x626f…cdfabacked Yes | 80c | 1,036$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.11 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 2c | 1,016$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.67 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6beb…6ea2backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 61 | 1.6%1 W · 60 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…b14dbacked No | 26c | 946.52$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.73 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed Yes | 2c | 889.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 9c | 878.69$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 87 | 11.5%10 W · 77 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b5…bdcabacked Yes | 3c | 840.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 22c | 799.99$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.84 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x631c…450fbacked Yes | 8c | 789.73$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbf…9effbacked No | 36c | 783.87$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.02 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…e039backed Yes | 34c | 749.44$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.41 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes | 53c | 730.98$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.75 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 5c | 688.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 86 | 4.7%4 W · 82 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -87%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed No | 47c | 669.47$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.79 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…6efebacked Yes | 15c | 654.9$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c76…d4eebacked Yes | 52c | 635.74$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.03 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +19%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 624.16$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.28 | 263 | 18.3%48 W · 215 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 4c | 603$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.28 | 107 | 4.7%5 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502d…9cd5backed No | 45c | 560.3$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.65 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c7…191abacked Yes | 18c | 560$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd42…8895backed Yes | 12c | 539.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9507…7b04backed Yes | 2c | 515.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a3…883abacked No | 27c | 514.16$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.17 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf401…5cacbacked Yes | 66c | 510$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd346…4c48backed Yes | 17c | 485.65$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 76c | 478.27$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.76 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 415.27$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.44 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440a…f824backed Yes | 50c | 411.02$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f55…71b7backed Yes | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…bffabacked Yes | 5c | 393.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e0…8761backed No | 58c | 387.83$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed Yes | 63c | 345.77$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.02 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes | 7c | 343.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed Yes | 58c | 299.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 75c | 292.85$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.27 | 74 | 62.2%46 W · 28 L | +8.7wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +69%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 285.91$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.35 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…f8bbbacked Yes | 44c | 275.97$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 20c | 272.12$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.51 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 10c | 260$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 78c | 220$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5709…22c3backed Yes | 10c | 216.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b9…d750backed Yes | 5c | 212.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…c345backed No | 74c | 207.63$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 13c | 207.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…309cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c1…9197backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd182…941ebacked Yes | 75c | 200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 50c | 193.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 18c | 185.9$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73aa…c3b4backed No | 67c | 170$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.9 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdd…3e97backed No | 78c | 169.78$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 55 | 27.3%15 W · 40 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Yes | 9c | 166.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 30c | 165.85$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.35 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…2093backed Yes | 71c | 150$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd742…f678backed Yes | 13c | 141.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68cb…6db8backed Yes | 68c | 140$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbb…42d9backed Yes | 10c | 139.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 73c | 139.21$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.12 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9036…fae2backed Yes | 13c | 136.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 19c | 130.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 103 | 9.7%10 W · 93 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc708…ac93backed Yes | 68c | 128.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked Yes | 56c | 120$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 118.86$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.34 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 34c | 117.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -7.9wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -84.6%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 59c | 116$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed Yes | 42c | 108.61$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.62 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 21c | 108.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 172 | 32%55 W · 117 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab69…2283backed Yes | 55c | 107.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…4dd8backed No | 76c | 101.74$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c9…d527backed Yes | 20c | 100.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -7.0wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…f773backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb3…16e7backed Yes | 58c | 76.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 62c | 74.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.27 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 28 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 5, 2026?this page
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 1, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 10, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 13, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 16, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 17, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 18, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 19, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 2, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 20, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 21, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 22, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 23, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 24, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 25, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 26, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 27, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 4, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 7, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 8, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 9, 2026?No won
- Will Russia strike Kyiv on March 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.