TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1abc…2093

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
118
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 4, 2026, EDT4829.2%14 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+3.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 48 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.79
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.4
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$31
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.03
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+296.7%+$44.87
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.05
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.68
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+258.5%+$29.56
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.5
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.77
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+352.6%+$47.52
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.81
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.09
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.98
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.08
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from February 27 to March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$82.9
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+105.4%+$71.84
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 26 to February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$83.27
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from February 24 to March 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$75.02
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+150.6%+$308.39
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$17.44
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+156.4%+$122
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$52Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+90.8%+$47.6
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 21 to February 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST+69.5%+$53.3
Showing 25 of 48 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST2924.1%7 W · 22 L-2.8wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-30.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Spurs (-2.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+92.3%+$19.2
Spread: Wizards (-3.5)backed Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$49.6
Warriors vs. Rockets: O/U 214.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$29.4
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$38
Jazz vs. 76ersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Spread: Pistons (-5.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20.1
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+47.1%+$27.2
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+44.9%+$18.6
Spread: Pelicans (-6.5)backed Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+96.1%+$14.7
Rockets vs. Thunderbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$97Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2024, EST-100%-$97.45
Warriors vs. Rocketsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2024, EST-100%-$65.92
Mavericks vs. Thunderbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2024, EST-100%-$57.69
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2024, EST-100%-$53.26
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2024, EST+222.6%+$98.62
Suns vs. Magicbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$69
Cavaliers vs. Heatbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2024, EST-100%-$24
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2024, EST-100%-$90.2
Magic vs. 76ersbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST-100%-$68
Kings vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2024, EST+203%+$160.99
Nuggets vs. Cavaliersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2024, EST-100%-$48.46
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2024, EST-100%-$45
Spurs vs. Sunsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$40.5
Lakers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2024, EST-100%-$78
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2024, EST+614.3%+$479.42
Warriors vs. Sunsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST-100%-$44.11
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1050%5 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Kings: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Hurricanes vs. Krakenbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12.3
Panthers vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+244.8%+$42.6
Blues vs. Wildbacked Blues · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+150%+$33
Sabres vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Islanders vs. Blue Jacketsbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Penguins vs. Rangersbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$35.7
Golden Knights vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+88.7%+$9.4
Blackhawks vs. Predatorsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+66.7%+$14
Avalanche vs. Utahbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+88.7%+$14.1
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+55.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2024, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+94.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Wisconsin Badgers (-5.5)backed Oregon Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+94.2%+$9.62
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Germany win the third most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$57.35
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bad Bunny have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$36
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 326: Charles Oliveira vs. Max Holloway (Lightweight, Main Card)backed Max Holloway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.