TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$640,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$494,373

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $640,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 344 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes1c34,001$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2644816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c30,168$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.231,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes7c19,017$1,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,320.8253817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes11c14,946$1,663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,663.1311512.2%14 W · 101 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes32c12,545$4,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,065.2214413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes14c12,078$1,743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,743.011,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes13c10,835$1,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,356.8129331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes6c7,343$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.7432613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd576…cb24backed Yes16c6,667$1,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.031323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes23c6,468$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.3514332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes41c5,960$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.8754122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes1c5,036$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.7827417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbfb5…3f64backed Yes1c5,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33510%0 W · 51 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes9c4,688$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.9566222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb087…6658backed Yes3c4,539$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.632321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b2a…70d2backed Yes13c4,431$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.724429.5%13 W · 31 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes16c4,370$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.841,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes1c4,273$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0835024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes3c4,064$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.13134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes19c4,000$768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76816427.4%45 W · 119 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-13.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a9…924ebacked No79c3,821$3,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$784.162060%12 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ad…7892backed Yes46c3,717$1,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,695.15540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed Yes8c3,500$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.452725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes11c3,469$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.5262713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes10c3,351$321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.9425012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes14c3,279$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.9831722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes0c3,185$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.985717.5%10 W · 47 L+0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid+38.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Yes27c2,971$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8031389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes13c2,918$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.34875.7%5 W · 82 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-65.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes24c2,702$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.228025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes25c2,700$674 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.1239723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf787…3559backed Yes3c2,674$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.512913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-66.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes6c2,424$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.295825.9%15 W · 43 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05f1…eadfbacked Yes45c2,377$1,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,070.77333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes13c2,306$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.9331621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes23c2,192$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.7636411%40 W · 324 L+10.0wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes21c2,187$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.9741230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb33e…cd0abacked Yes5c2,060$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1032711.1%3 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked No72c2,037$1,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.2428526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes8c2,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.562412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…3a33backed Yes32c1,977$638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.846544.6%29 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes10c1,958$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.0910510.5%11 W · 94 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes6c1,923$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.981,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b73…c441backed Yes3c1,833$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.726254.8%34 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes21c1,832$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381.4657621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes7c1,798$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5150319.5%98 W · 405 L-13.2wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-46.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes25c1,713$425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.4910629.2%31 W · 75 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes28c1,630$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.9817631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e82…77acbacked Yes8c1,591$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.3315925.2%40 W · 119 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes17c1,547$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.245630.4%17 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes12c1,500$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.179811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes40c1,497$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.6717628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8849…765abacked No77c1,481$1,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.022290.9%20 W · 2 L+4.3wins+0.19per pick71cpaid+28.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes33c1,471$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.7653522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x41d0…e9f5backed Yes5c1,403$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.94333%1 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-87.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes9c1,396$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.7442719.2%82 W · 345 L+23.3wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb89f…f169backed No76c1,382$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.874348.8%21 W · 22 L+2.6wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes11c1,370$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.5802.5%2 W · 78 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-80.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes21c1,368$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5713511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes9c1,294$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3113430.6%41 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x201a…66a8backed Yes11c1,288$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.1420129.4%59 W · 142 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes41c1,285$528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.0814137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No69c1,255$860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.116167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes22c1,253$272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$272.122926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes26c1,196$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.816817.3%29 W · 139 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked No72c1,190$858 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.155326.4%14 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-50.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes46c1,189$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.9710536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes14c1,172$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.9413844.2%61 W · 77 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-19.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes41c1,164$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.0416532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes19c1,123$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.5784616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd7…b2dbbacked Yes1c1,104$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.19540%2 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick14cpaid+150.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d74…a191backed Yes5c1,100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.25038%19 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick27cpaid+47.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9cea…a932backed Yes27c1,088$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.578925.8%23 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes17c1,047$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.3412411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes17c990$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.461,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes14c982.24$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.345628.9%50 W · 512 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes13c979.05$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.0159225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes17c973.39$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.0588018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes7c955.32$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.58506%3 W · 47 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-39%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes15c946.88$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.8748819.3%94 W · 394 L+0.5wins0.00per pick19cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes22c912.52$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.0488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eb9…a2b2backed Yes27c899.99$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.25944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes40c867.88$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.028826.1%23 W · 65 L-6.3wins-0.07per pick33cpaid-47.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes24c814.72$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.4463821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes2c798.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.96937.5%7 W · 86 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-51%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes22c786.99$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.149726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes12c786.33$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5863414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca2e…88f5backed Yes7c773.36$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.5110822.2%24 W · 84 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-33.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7849…da97backed Yes4c767.37$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3734127.3%93 W · 248 L+1.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-7.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes13c764.44$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0434425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bc9…17acbacked Yes20c763.68$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.952611.5%3 W · 23 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d4…a31ebacked Yes11c758.67$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1310917.4%19 W · 90 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes39c753.6$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.637830.7%116 W · 262 L-17.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes14c750$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.9220432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes16c748.16$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5946521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb56b…28dbbacked Yes17c733.22$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.298219.5%16 W · 66 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4219…6e2cbacked Yes4c723.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.696325.4%16 W · 47 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes45c717.71$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.73938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b27…0b98backed Yes20c716.02$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.734427%93 W · 251 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked No73c709.71$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.8718726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.