Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb295f8b30d32c810f2850f52eeca0a700dfed402f099a9f50e39fcf98e09ab7b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $617,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $525,284
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $617,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 300 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 1c | 74,199$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.26 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.23per pick | 30cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 10c | 39,560$3,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,775.21 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 27c | 16,039$4,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,336.1 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 12,873$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.98 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 2c | 11,396$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.29 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8907…d8e6backed Yes | 0c | 6,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 12c | 5,673$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.72 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 11c | 5,479$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.73 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 10c | 5,434$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.98 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd769…f90cbacked Yes | 11c | 5,360$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.56 | 144 | 13.9%20 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 11c | 4,991$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,496$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.79 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes | 14c | 4,378$614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.98 | 285 | 26.7%76 W · 209 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 11c | 4,036$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.79 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 12c | 3,901$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.02 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…0191backed Yes | 39c | 3,743$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,452.34 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…cb24backed Yes | 2c | 3,700$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 4c | 3,682$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.39 | 62 | 6.5%4 W · 58 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +139.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 8c | 3,446$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.19 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 8c | 3,000$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.49 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a1…ebcabacked Yes | 29c | 3,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf48…136dbacked No | 70c | 3,000$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.49 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 7c | 2,959$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.81 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 12c | 2,904$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.77 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7946…bfb2backed Yes | 3c | 2,801$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.83 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 10c | 2,800$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.5 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 2,704$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.26 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb087…6658backed No | 65c | 2,662$1,727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.64 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,617$603 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.29 | 280 | 25.4%71 W · 209 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 11c | 2,571$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.26 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,548$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.46 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfafe…2e34backed Yes | 45c | 2,430$1,084 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,083.91 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4a…089fbacked Yes | 8c | 2,345$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd03…60fbbacked Yes | 27c | 2,336$634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$633.67 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 13c | 2,290$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.99 | 83 | 20.5%17 W · 66 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe505…600cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,284$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked Yes | 1c | 2,242$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…440ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,191$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.33 | 211 | 6.6%14 W · 197 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 5c | 2,135$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.32 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…3a33backed Yes | 11c | 2,116$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.65 | 65 | 44.6%29 W · 36 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97fc…229ebacked Yes | 16c | 2,114$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.85 | 135 | 11.9%16 W · 119 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 13c | 1,781$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.79 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 23c | 1,736$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.54 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf5…e9dcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,710$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,708$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.2 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…9b49backed No | 73c | 1,609$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.58 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 22c | 1,600$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.7 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 72c | 1,558$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.02 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked No | 78c | 1,533$1,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.85 | 22 | 90.9%20 W · 2 L | +4.3wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.5 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 8c | 1,492$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 6c | 1,480$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.34 | 216 | 6%13 W · 203 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 10c | 1,438$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.66 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 45c | 1,430$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.24 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 18c | 1,421$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.73 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…8d02backed Yes | 20c | 1,413$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.84 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f9…14fabacked Yes | 28c | 1,346$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e69…f525backed Yes | 25c | 1,321$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 16c | 1,313$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.43 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1740…d7c0backed No | 76c | 1,300$993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.69 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 1,232$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.21 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 12c | 1,200$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.4 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 7c | 1,186$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 16c | 1,179$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e6…819fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,162$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x102b…a7acbacked Yes | 14c | 1,145$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.35 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 1,102$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.89 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 11c | 1,091$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.74 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…d073backed Yes | 5c | 1,084$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.96 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 14c | 1,052$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.96 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1626…9992backed Yes | 12c | 1,044$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.65 | 114 | 28.9%33 W · 81 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Yes | 35c | 999.99$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeab…d961backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 148 | 29.1%43 W · 105 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc164…efb9backed Yes | 9c | 997.14$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.91 | 83 | 37.3%31 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05f1…eadfbacked No | 58c | 973.36$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 20c | 952.64$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.09 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…9319backed Yes | 4c | 890.45$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 345 | 15.9%55 W · 290 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 41c | 857.48$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.73 | 592 | 25.3%150 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75fe…252cbacked Yes | 18c | 835.27$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.74 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb556…ca63backed Yes | 14c | 831.22$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 78 | 30.8%24 W · 54 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked Yes | 4c | 800$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 787.18$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.82 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9532…f57ebacked No | 75c | 785$591 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.37 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…2b33backed Yes | 3c | 775.54$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 59 | 20.3%12 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 7c | 715$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe924…e6a7backed Yes | 2c | 700$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 22 | 4.5%1 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes | 6c | 696.33$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 111 | 11.7%13 W · 98 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +93.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 75c | 695.25$518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.76 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 9c | 673.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0915…ba41backed Yes | 43c | 664.64$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfa…27b2backed Yes | 5c | 657.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed Yes | 30c | 654.92$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.73 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed Yes | 7c | 651.88$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ea…2072backed Yes | 4c | 648.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 58 | 20.7%12 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -46%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes | 7c | 643.87$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 123 | 32.5%40 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes | 35c | 643.55$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.62 | 149 | 28.2%42 W · 107 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes | 9c | 643.11$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 160 | 23.1%37 W · 123 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.