TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$516,889
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$550,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $516,889 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa638…1d87backed Yes56c16,360$9,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,215.2929331.7%93 W · 200 L+5.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-19.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No0c12,684$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6435024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e9c…2ec7backed No12c12,309$1,452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,451.7214219.7%28 W · 114 L-11.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-46%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No17c10,600$1,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,851.811,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes67c6,986$4,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,280.0531722.4%71 W · 246 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes75c5,085$3,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,282.5914413.9%20 W · 124 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-28.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed No2c5,007$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.5825617.2%44 W · 212 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x555c…c64dbacked Yes55c4,945$2,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,209.7414332.9%47 W · 96 L+0.1wins0.00per pick33cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d0a…c96fbacked Yes68c4,910$3,339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,571.3128526.7%76 W · 209 L-11.5wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No32c4,805$1,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,549.547371.2%52 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes77c4,011$3,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.5715136.4%55 W · 96 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd03…60fbbacked Yes59c4,008$2,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.483023.3%7 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ad…7892backed Yes30c3,686$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,578.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+16.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked No29c2,822$814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$814.4122023.6%52 W · 168 L+1.0wins0.00per pick23cpaid-22.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3488…d6fdbacked No37c2,779$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,015.7820735.3%73 W · 134 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes58c2,636$1,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,111.0853222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes66c2,591$1,703 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.0328025.4%71 W · 209 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-46.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75f…5b1ebacked Yes56c2,559$1,439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,120.741540%6 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes73c2,506$1,819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.869726.8%26 W · 71 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-31.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No34c2,360$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.2487618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No21c2,330$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.3299410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ed5…72a6backed No4c2,293$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.7912429%36 W · 88 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+110.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb60c…72f6backed No44c2,266$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes47c2,261$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.463414.8%94 W · 540 L-1.8wins0.00per pick15cpaid-42.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes76c2,211$1,684 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$526.6338828.6%111 W · 277 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-39.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97fc…229ebacked Yes71c2,206$1,569 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$637.413511.9%16 W · 119 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-59.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a1…ebcabacked Yes76c2,146$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.512133.3%7 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes69c2,114$1,467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$646.7539723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No6c2,068$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.7215844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdeb6…1891backed Yes61c2,035$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.623100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+60.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9625…7079backed No46c2,017$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed No24c2,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4801389.4%13 W · 125 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-37.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked No50c1,962$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.818634.9%30 W · 56 L+0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No8c1,959$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.8445511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No36c1,698$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.269233.7%31 W · 61 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-12.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed No36c1,659$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.3887917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed No20c1,645$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.6910432.7%34 W · 70 L+5.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+19.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed No40c1,563$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.077439.2%29 W · 45 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e2…77e1backed No37c1,521$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.068630.2%26 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes78c1,496$1,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.7541230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ba…d348backed No6c1,407$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.11540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+1.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No19c1,358$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0916941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes74c1,309$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.6222926.6%61 W · 168 L-0.7wins0.00per pick27cpaid-48.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92bc…06bfbacked No51c1,298$659 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.032157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes54c1,230$669 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.2429227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8fb…af41backed Yes39c1,192$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.116839.7%27 W · 41 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf2b8…e9f3backed No12c1,181$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.666020%12 W · 48 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked No49c1,178$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.9963021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed No31c1,156$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.454131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd897…9b49backed No28c1,141$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.096157.4%35 W · 26 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc831…0111backed No40c1,123$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.053221.9%7 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes70c1,081$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1617628.4%50 W · 126 L+0.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No38c1,026$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.696167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes59c1,023$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.5210536.2%38 W · 67 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed No61c1,020$621 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.4446137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Yes58c1,018$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.4912411.3%14 W · 110 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-69.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b2d…4a62backed Yes67c1,012$674 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.575630.4%17 W · 39 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes54c1,005$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.0859225.3%150 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9057…c12cbacked No6c997.8$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.8912424.2%30 W · 94 L+11.3wins+0.09per pick15cpaid+100.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes66c953.34$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.37825.6%20 W · 58 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8e6…819fbacked Yes68c925.78$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.64922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-64.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed No47c859.64$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.391931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf21…18debacked Yes73c858.14$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.2617324.3%42 W · 131 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-33.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes68c846.01$578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.5420432.4%66 W · 138 L-11.3wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-38.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes66c845.73$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.3346521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9060…790bbacked Yes64c819.11$521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$297.65837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes58c813.07$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.927337%27 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No26c800.3$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.3417631.8%56 W · 120 L-0.1wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5758…e2d8backed No26c776.97$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.424946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe53…9917backed Yes54c753.56$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.527920.3%16 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd15a…80dbbacked Yes73c748.87$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.062373.9%17 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick71cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf4…2934backed No35c744.34$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.851323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+95.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes45c741.31$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.392,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed No43c699.95$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.982725.9%7 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x280f…1963backed No34c693.79$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.646240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes50c690.28$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.568528.2%24 W · 61 L-0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb087…6658backed No44c689.25$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.052321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+70.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3fb…dad8backed Yes71c668.54$476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.6112332.5%40 W · 83 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cea…a932backed Yes73c664.19$487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.568925.8%23 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed Yes57c660.29$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.926634.8%23 W · 43 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+57%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5088…8844backed No3c644.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.226524.6%16 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-14.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes41c643.85$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.873938.5%15 W · 24 L0.0wins0.00per pick38cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3825…04e8backed Yes73c639.99$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.194254.8%23 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick60cpaid+4.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e3c…1f3ebacked Yes80c612.5$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.52040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-27.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x738d…cc21backed Yes63c600$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2221172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick58cpaid+22.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b1…4e80backed Yes53c600$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.15per pick29cpaid+32.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes68c583.36$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.6814137.6%53 W · 88 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x962d…dc4cbacked No28c557.76$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes75c550.16$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.9518726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes57c548.12$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.4524815.3%38 W · 210 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes66c546.92$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.2633422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b2a…5aa6backed Yes72c543.17$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.52540%10 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid+6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb5…f779backed Yes61c523.78$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.816532.7%54 W · 111 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5523…561cbacked Yes42c500.71$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.96540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes61c500$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19742628.2%120 W · 306 L-38.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-40.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked No27c500$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1356097.7%47 W · 562 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes60c499.99$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20231621.8%69 W · 247 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12fa…a59ebacked Yes70c499.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked Yes38c495.88$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.859348.4%45 W · 48 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes70c489.85$343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9662713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.