TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x34a6…e544

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
111
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Champions League at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT6167.2%41 W · 20 L+3.9wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 61 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$350.38
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$449Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT+27.3%+$122.74
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+105.2%+$23.63
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$1,157Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+47.3%+$546.86
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$914Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+35.3%+$322.93
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$87.78
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$380Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$159.95
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+54.9%+$32.96
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.43
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.73
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$388Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$388.08
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$1,126Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$516.37
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.25
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+159.9%+$429.62
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$63.74
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.17
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$860Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+45.9%+$395.11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$394Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$393.69
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$799Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+32.7%+$261.18
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$732Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+36%+$263.38
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$953Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+120.3%+$1,146.97
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$1,074Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,073.83
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,355Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+27.6%+$374.23
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.67
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$63.88
Showing 25 of 61 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2378.3%18 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick68cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.49
France vs. England: Team to Winbacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$55
France vs. Spain: Team to Advancebacked France · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$350Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$350
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$187.34
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$500Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$392.86
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$53.85
Germany to score first vs. Ecuador?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$18.55
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT+25%+$8.75
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$7.9
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$8.47
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$6.74
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$49.89
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$71.42
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$46.67
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$115Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+36.3%+$41.72
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$56.75
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+25%+$38.75
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$993Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$992.52
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$169.23
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$447Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$173.93
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$339Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$112.93
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+30.1%+$90.38
All 23 picks, newest first.
Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Aug 3, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Asian League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Ligalast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$190Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$85.31
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$70.27
All 2 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CR Flamengo win on 2026-07-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
CSyD Defensa y Justicia vs. CD Riestra: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 29, 2026, EDT+37%+$14.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Malisheva vs. KF Vllaznia Shkodër: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$42.86
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Jul 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$350Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$93.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.