Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21ca0eef520c05b16c00315eeb2b8d2fcdcdd06a0a682cc3a90b5062cc129c46

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: May 3, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $274,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $212,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $274,456 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 265 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes	2c	10,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7141…8345backed Yes	16c	8,262$1,321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,321.43	151	36.4%55 W · 96 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	7c	6,000$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	5,424$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.95	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	27c	5,262$1,436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,435.65	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	4,957$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.27	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	5c	4,610$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.89	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	3c	4,471$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.47	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	3,866$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.83	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda17…9b48backed No	68c	3,605$2,469 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,136.94	17	70.6%12 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	62cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86ff…7bfdbacked Yes	12c	3,545$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.91	85	28.2%24 W · 61 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3690…e16fbacked No	79c	3,399$2,691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$708.01	103	30.1%31 W · 72 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e82…af92backed No	73c	3,207$2,330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$876.43	49	65.3%32 W · 17 L	+2.8wins	+0.06per pick	60cpaid	+12%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	12c	3,203$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.77	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	13c	2,795$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.27	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes	12c	2,694$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.35	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	28cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	5c	2,652$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.58	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3237…dbd4backed No	69c	2,500$1,724 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$775.96	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes	9c	2,499$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.48	130	8.5%11 W · 119 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+95.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	21c	2,410$507 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.04	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8bc…ec51backed Yes	11c	2,071$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.12	160	23.1%37 W · 123 L	+11.0wins	+0.07per pick	16cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed Yes	20c	2,000$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	1,982$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.36	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	23c	1,910$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.29	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	7c	1,909$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.37	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	25c	1,800$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.38	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	10c	1,780$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.19	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	18c	1,764$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.61	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf72…6378backed Yes	1c	1,674$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x34a6…e544backed No	69c	1,642$1,126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.37	61	67.2%41 W · 20 L	+3.9wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe2fe…6791backed No	76c	1,638$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$387.57	16	68.8%11 W · 5 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	28c	1,590$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.1	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x475b…e152backed No	67c	1,560$1,044 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$515.55	51	45.1%23 W · 28 L	-3.0wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-34%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	6c	1,540$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.2	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x98dc…6ae4backed Yes	2c	1,508$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…d9e5backed Yes	15c	1,494$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.31	42	33.3%14 W · 28 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+16.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,493$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	29c	1,485$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.77	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes	19c	1,450$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.33	93	30.1%28 W · 65 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe133…6994backed Yes	52c	1,439$745 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745.07	104	32.7%34 W · 70 L	+5.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	+19.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ede…719abacked Yes	4c	1,325$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	4c	1,223$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f3…e493backed Yes	27c	1,220$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.4	97	26.8%26 W · 71 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes	12c	1,219$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.39	332	31%103 W · 229 L	+10.3wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	19c	1,172$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.96	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x62f4…4064backed Yes	30c	1,167$347 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$347.24	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbeab…d961backed Yes	26c	1,150$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296	148	29.1%43 W · 105 L	+6.6wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	27c	1,111$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,110$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.14	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x017b…1ef4backed Yes	2c	1,081$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.62	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	45c	1,078$487 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$487.1	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b73…c441backed No	60c	1,073$639 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.96	62	54.8%34 W · 28 L	+4.5wins	+0.07per pick	48cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf5d9…be50backed No	80c	1,048$838 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.6	30	46.7%14 W · 16 L	+2.1wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b0a…0190backed Yes	11c	1,030$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.09	78	20.5%16 W · 62 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	32c	1,010$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.92	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4247…91c4backed Yes	20c	975.63$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.02	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x404d…b129backed Yes	21c	934.04$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.76	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ea9…e11ebacked Yes	43c	933.37$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.94	44	43.2%19 W · 25 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d8…9e28backed Yes	20c	903.38$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.85	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	+2.0wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b97…c5dfbacked No	77c	900$689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.13per pick	33cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e13…67fbbacked Yes	50c	888$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	19c	861.81$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.07	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	2c	853.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	11c	799.93$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.99	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48e7…1b38backed Yes	11c	763.03$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.1	39	38.5%15 W · 24 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No	68c	739$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$239	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes	27c	737.43$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	40cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc3…4972backed Yes	9c	719$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.32	212	42.5%90 W · 122 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9476…28bcbacked Yes	24c	699.99$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	118	38.1%45 W · 73 L	-4.6wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a67…00f7backed Yes	39c	690.59$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.33	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	+57%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	23c	673.05$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.5	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	16c	638.35$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.45	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes	13c	615.38$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd354…4d78backed Yes	13c	612.02$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.46	59	18.6%11 W · 48 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcf1…1695backed Yes	16c	608.95$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.56	58	22.4%13 W · 45 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b2a…5aa6backed Yes	13c	600$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	25	40%10 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	11c	599.99$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.2	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb16…72bfbacked Yes	45c	588.89$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	58cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked No	76c	583.23$443 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01b4…fbe4backed Yes	9c	578.3$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	64	29.7%19 W · 45 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ab…2da7backed Yes	13c	577.54$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	58	29.3%17 W · 41 L	+2.9wins	+0.05per pick	24cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	61c	572.79$351 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221.56	309	55%170 W · 139 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	13c	569.96$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.6	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	8c	565.96$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.28	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xae79…9161backed Yes	54c	552.69$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.30per pick	30cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	11c	550$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.5	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	15c	543.14$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.47	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	79c	531$421 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$109.91	241	55.6%134 W · 107 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	17c	519.88$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.1	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5deb…d24cbacked Yes	10c	504.99$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	56	33.9%19 W · 37 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b4…3cf1backed No	70c	500$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150	49	32.7%16 W · 33 L	+2.5wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+27.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b8a…c674backed No	75c	500$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked Yes	34c	500$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e07…8178backed No	56c	500$278 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$222	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.1wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

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Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?this page
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Yes won
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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