Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02f9e14c45fe6dec4d08b518dc407d819f944f47885de21578551572ae90e17a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $357,768
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $410,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $357,768 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 428 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb042…14f3backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 68c | 8,536$5,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,714.13 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed No | 16c | 7,377$1,201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200.68 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked No | 10c | 7,257$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed No | 20c | 7,069$1,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,384.23 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed No | 32c | 7,043$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280.36 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…c12cbacked No | 2c | 6,500$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128 | 124 | 24.2%30 W · 94 L | +11.3wins | +0.09per pick | 15cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c8e…c29ebacked Yes | 77c | 4,451$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.72 | 76 | 23.7%18 W · 58 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 34c | 3,935$1,349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,348.65 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 5c | 3,850$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.5 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +22.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 26c | 3,370$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.85 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…2ec7backed No | 18c | 3,305$606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$605.52 | 142 | 19.7%28 W · 114 L | -11.6wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -46%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed No | 26c | 3,203$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.35 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 40c | 3,170$1,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,282.93 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 66c | 3,146$2,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 66c | 2,932$1,929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.17 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 66c | 2,788$1,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.87 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed No | 28c | 2,748$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.88 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 28c | 2,665$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.56 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 66c | 2,548$1,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.25 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x696e…1c38backed No | 28c | 2,533$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.24 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b8…e9f3backed No | 7c | 2,500$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 32c | 2,441$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.92 | 105 | 12.4%13 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe133…6994backed No | 17c | 2,356$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.19 | 104 | 32.7%34 W · 70 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed No | 31c | 2,293$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.05 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 80c | 2,125$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.1 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x017b…1ef4backed No | 14c | 2,105$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.55 | 78 | 20.5%16 W · 62 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 57c | 2,078$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.7 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 4c | 2,000$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 124 | 29%36 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +110.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 1,956$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.91 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 72c | 1,933$1,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.75 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…852abacked Yes | 67c | 1,902$1,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a67…00f7backed Yes | 69c | 1,843$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.23 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +57%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 60c | 1,809$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.98 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed No | 29c | 1,715$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…eac8backed No | 21c | 1,700$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.99 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -10.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 72c | 1,601$1,146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.82 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed No | 18c | 1,490$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.07 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea8…36efbacked No | 9c | 1,362$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.35 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…af41backed Yes | 77c | 1,317$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.8 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 62c | 1,303$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.64 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 72c | 1,301$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.93 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe155…45afbacked No | 43c | 1,269$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$539.94 | 209 | 24.9%52 W · 157 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 77c | 1,260$967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.61 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34a6…e544backed No | 32c | 1,216$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.08 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8461…d9bfbacked Yes | 68c | 1,215$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.71 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 25c | 1,200$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.99 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23a…3e2bbacked Yes | 67c | 1,178$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.36 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 1,154$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.35 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -7.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…9e28backed Yes | 75c | 1,127$849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.22 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed No | 27c | 1,110$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.16 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f3…aa71backed No | 23c | 1,100$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 67 | 62.7%42 W · 25 L | +8.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5f…356abacked Yes | 78c | 1,056$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.27 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.37per pick | 35cpaid | +239.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9476…28bcbacked No | 41c | 1,021$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.79 | 118 | 38.1%45 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 80c | 1,010$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.02 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33d4…c167backed No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 177 | 23.2%41 W · 136 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 31c | 993.65$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.09 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 28c | 947.82$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.12 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 25c | 931.41$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.13 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e7…1b38backed Yes | 52c | 895.04$465 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.75 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 69c | 851.48$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.91 | 83 | 42.2%35 W · 48 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b19…ca35backed Yes | 78c | 833.57$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.37 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 65c | 832.58$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.58 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d47ebacked Yes | 71c | 815.4$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.81 | 106 | 17%18 W · 88 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…924ebacked Yes | 63c | 791.03$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.03 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c37…eee6backed Yes | 51c | 788.22$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.22 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed Yes | 65c | 777$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.95 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 34c | 764.99$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.1 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…d518backed No | 33c | 752.08$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked No | 39c | 745.33$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.17 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 43c | 736.4$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.43 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 40c | 727$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.19 | 241 | 55.6%134 W · 107 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked No | 7c | 722$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed Yes | 71c | 653.62$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.55 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 69c | 613.11$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.02 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes | 49c | 610.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 325 | 29.2%95 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 47c | 600$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 71c | 599.99$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb9…a2b2backed No | 6c | 599.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fa…1faebacked No | 33c | 598.95$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.54 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed No | 30c | 597.01$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.27 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…2065backed No | 15c | 592.06$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.35 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c4…8129backed No | 14c | 578.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.38 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -16.1wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 67c | 563.29$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.16 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 67c | 562$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.72 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 56c | 560.11$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.02 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 9c | 556.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.07 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30d7…59c1backed No | 3c | 549.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b54…2d32backed Yes | 62c | 545.83$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.83 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…af5bbacked No | 22c | 544.27$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 71c | 535.39$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.92 | 217 | 32.3%70 W · 147 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fc…a3b6backed Yes | 75c | 525.14$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.28 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked No | 20c | 506.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.63 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 28c | 502$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b05…8983backed No | 7c | 495$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 124 | 21.8%27 W · 97 L | +11.8wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 79c | 492$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.84 | 212 | 42.5%90 W · 122 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180f…0c07backed No | 50c | 491.24$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.54 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed No | 27c | 487.96$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.93 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4326…c3a8backed Yes | 74c | 482.22$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.34 | 174 | 34.5%60 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e33…8504backed No | 25c | 478.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.