Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84c4a2c06eaec722e8c5b61fdcee169299156ee928a077088bd290f9ea489114
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $397,895
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $325,416
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $397,895 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 263 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf272…c118backed Yes | 18c | 16,353$2,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,972.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 0c | 13,595$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 1c | 11,031$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.34 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 10,350$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 15c | 10,286$1,514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,514.43 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 10c | 8,280$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$830.87 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x689a…779ebacked Yes | 17c | 7,788$1,337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,336.62 | 225 | 9.8%22 W · 203 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 6,576$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.96 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…dcdebacked Yes | 13c | 5,565$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…9dbdbacked Yes | 6c | 5,117$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813e…5d51backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 313 | 4.8%15 W · 298 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 11c | 4,994$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.93 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 1c | 4,579$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.74 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…37febacked Yes | 11c | 3,752$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.69 | 316 | 21.8%69 W · 247 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eed…2050backed Yes | 24c | 3,627$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$875.35 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf72…6378backed Yes | 5c | 3,443$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.25 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea3…2266backed Yes | 18c | 3,144$576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$575.72 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes | 10c | 3,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 164 | 27.4%45 W · 119 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 15c | 2,918$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.53 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 19c | 2,807$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.16 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes | 20c | 2,803$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.73 | 388 | 28.6%111 W · 277 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…c64dbacked Yes | 13c | 2,685$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.92 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes | 12c | 2,670$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.03 | 115 | 12.2%14 W · 101 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 5c | 2,540$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,500$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,500$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.86 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 2,460$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.85 | 121 | 6.6%8 W · 113 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…5051backed No | 77c | 2,340$1,798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.96 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d91…f6dabacked Yes | 4c | 2,329$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c29…8c43backed Yes | 3c | 2,291$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.11 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,257$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.82 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x774d…5cdabacked Yes | 11c | 2,250$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.18 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 11c | 2,181$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.14 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe243…af59backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 364 | 11%40 W · 324 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e9…f380backed Yes | 9c | 1,999$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.11 | 176 | 31.8%56 W · 120 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…302dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,988$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.41 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…852abacked Yes | 25c | 1,911$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 14c | 1,806$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.44 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9c…9a07backed Yes | 25c | 1,718$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.5 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…b129backed Yes | 13c | 1,692$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.62 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,600$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 18c | 1,531$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.86 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,510$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6869…0484backed Yes | 8c | 1,500$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.97 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec3…c2a0backed No | 78c | 1,411$1,106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.53 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x064b…eae5backed No | 75c | 1,401$1,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.15 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 5c | 1,328$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3b…5ae2backed Yes | 3c | 1,320$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47f3…e493backed Yes | 5c | 1,303$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…33b5backed Yes | 21c | 1,202$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -6.4wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…f43cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.93 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266e…17e5backed Yes | 10c | 1,145$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.05 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x549e…32a1backed No | 77c | 1,102$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed Yes | 18c | 1,097$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.69 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,074$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.17 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 15c | 1,029$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…77acbacked Yes | 9c | 1,016$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.65 | 159 | 25.2%40 W · 119 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 80c | 995.43$796 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.26 | 340 | 39.7%135 W · 205 L | -12.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387c…2423backed Yes | 6c | 981.83$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 176 | 28.4%50 W · 126 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes | 12c | 949.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 79c | 942.5$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.35 | 144 | 51.4%74 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 12c | 939.98$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.57 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b67…60aabacked Yes | 23c | 923.08$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.31 | 141 | 37.6%53 W · 88 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7871…2917backed Yes | 24c | 900$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.6 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4288…00e8backed Yes | 30c | 883.28$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.69 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c77…2eb1backed Yes | 3c | 816.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.57 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | +68.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa14a…df2abacked Yes | 10c | 801.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 562 | 8.9%50 W · 512 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b9…0d39backed Yes | 13c | 799.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef24…a44dbacked Yes | 22c | 790.67$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.91 | 171 | 26.9%46 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 69c | 747.51$515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.33 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes | 14c | 740.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 348 | 33.3%116 W · 232 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 731.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 691 | 5.5%38 W · 653 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 20c | 718.26$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.99 | 276 | 47.8%132 W · 144 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf328…2b78backed Yes | 11c | 708.13$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes | 24c | 676.24$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.68 | 326 | 13.8%45 W · 281 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…643fbacked Yes | 9c | 667.33$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 95 | 15.8%15 W · 80 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8fc…a3b6backed Yes | 10c | 666$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5381…1ec5backed Yes | 7c | 665.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf4…3b45backed Yes | 8c | 659.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 317 | 43.2%137 W · 180 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 17c | 659.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.26 | 250 | 12.8%32 W · 218 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea85…efe5backed Yes | 5c | 643.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 62 | 14.5%9 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…e07abacked Yes | 15c | 622.25$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.3 | 781 | 11.3%88 W · 693 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…d7dcbacked Yes | 22c | 599.96$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.59 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee72…5d8dbacked Yes | 22c | 598$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.93 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 9c | 585.06$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 222 | 27%60 W · 162 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 77c | 579.44$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.77 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b4e…128ebacked Yes | 26c | 571.81$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18e4…8e4ebacked Yes | 20c | 570.96$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.91 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -77%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea1e…2858backed No | 73c | 570$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.75 | 117 | 29.1%34 W · 83 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…18debacked Yes | 13c | 550$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 173 | 24.3%42 W · 131 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…dbd4backed Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 27 | 25.9%7 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce0…5f11backed Yes | 6c | 500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 427 | 19.2%82 W · 345 L | +23.3wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b24…f36abacked Yes | 6c | 489.9$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 192 | 29.2%56 W · 136 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed Yes | 16c | 470.67$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.83 | 259 | 44.4%115 W · 144 L | +10.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…fd66backed No | 75c | 453.23$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.27 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…a429backed Yes | 8c | 438.74$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.76 | 317 | 22.4%71 W · 246 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…ea54backed Yes | 14c | 426.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.97 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 21c | 423.48$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…a6f9backed Yes | 12c | 416.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.