TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe2b9…7023

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
257
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Tweets, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 52 out of 100; worst Weather at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2026, EDT22227%60 W · 162 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-6.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 222 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+154.3%+$32.15
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$7.5
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.9
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+228.6%+$24.35
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 29 to July 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.66
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+83.7%+$15.95
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.99
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.75
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+49.7%+$8.3
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.1
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+256.2%+$50.35
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.5
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.67
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.7
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+53.6%+$55.85
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.7
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+58.6%+$25.85
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.76
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.43
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+61.6%+$15.25
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+25%+$8
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
Showing 25 of 222 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT2642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Weather — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.04
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on March 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.9
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C or higher on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 14°C on March 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+51.1%+$13.4
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+45.5%+$12.5
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+66.9%+$25.28
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+37.3%+$17.37
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.8
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+135.3%+$23
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.9
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$11.55
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+42.9%+$6
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3.15
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$12.2
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+160.9%+$18.5
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on March 6?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+42.2%+$4.45
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$16.71
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$12.4
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.57
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$20.5
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+259.7%+$36.1
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$25.2
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$18.05
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+76.1%+$8.64
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 7, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$29.16
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$64.55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump visit China by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $92,000 December 29-January 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$15.25
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.