Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1d74c9ea77aac207b7d1ddb084eb25c15ffbb2b6ffa233dd7b8addb73643ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $109,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $109,083 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 7,128$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.61 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 36c | 3,653$1,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.26 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 32c | 3,623$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152.38 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 23c | 3,571$805 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.88 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 1c | 3,444$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 10c | 2,824$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.52 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…e634backed Yes | 1c | 2,631$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 8c | 1,563$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 20c | 1,380$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.88 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 13c | 1,283$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.05 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…ad4dbacked Yes | 76c | 981.4$743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$743.08 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 32c | 814.56$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.03 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 17c | 685$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.97 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 13c | 684.96$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 72c | 662.78$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.11 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 639.09$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.81 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 25c | 526.87$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 69c | 497.68$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.24 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 68c | 435.79$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.29 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 35c | 432.92$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.24 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 76c | 386.43$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.57 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 18c | 386.18$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.64 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes | 35c | 381.98$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.98 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 49c | 365.04$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.81 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3744…5b16backed Yes | 8c | 363.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | -4.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 56c | 351.19$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.4 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4e…e44abacked Yes | 21c | 347$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 26c | 330$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.55 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 22c | 281.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 46c | 258.33$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 7c | 251.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dbe…e1d8backed Yes | 42c | 249.62$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093a…1b3fbacked No | 78c | 249.01$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.61 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 26c | 243.37$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.17 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2ced…e412backed Yes | 23c | 239.96$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked No | 74c | 229$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 218.34$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed No | 73c | 202.06$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.83 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 25c | 199.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 46c | 198.59$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 42c | 191.53$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 188.47$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 25c | 187.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 74c | 184.47$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1762…c83ebacked Yes | 28c | 181.8$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c4…e119backed Yes | 15c | 181.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 89 | 40.4%36 W · 53 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 52c | 180.66$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.46 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb5…7bf7backed Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 37c | 149.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 42c | 149.53$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 11c | 135.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…835dbacked Yes | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked Yes | 41c | 134.54$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.89 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd533…e470backed Yes | 26c | 133$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 42c | 131.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.48 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 62c | 127.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked No | 40c | 127.23$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.92 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x622a…cc4cbacked Yes | 11c | 119.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.72 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 77c | 114.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.63 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…ba43backed Yes | 62c | 112.95$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 29 | 82.8%24 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…48babacked Yes | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 110$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.75 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 70c | 108.04$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 72c | 102.51$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 194 | 61.9%120 W · 74 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 18c | 101.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…5abdbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +3.4wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed No | 20c | 99.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked Yes | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 95.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 27c | 89.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 73c | 88.92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed No | 63c | 88.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.87 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 88$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 73c | 84.44$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef9…3f42backed Yes | 50c | 82.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x690d…9221backed Yes | 26c | 78.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1382…7820backed Yes | 27c | 75.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 147 | 36.1%53 W · 94 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes | 30c | 73.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 72.21$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked Yes | 66c | 71.63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 40c | 71.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbac…435fbacked Yes | 43c | 69.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 24c | 68.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb04f…5822backed Yes | 38c | 67.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b9…7023backed Yes | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 75c | 64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa251…4774backed Yes | 57c | 60.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.65 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 27c | 60.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 28c | 59.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 26c | 58.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 27c | 56.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.