Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf93e8c9eb65e0d3e3e68bcf3626a4ea9a157c9849f8dc337897bb1c49b979a17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,576 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 1c | 17,232$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.66 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,520$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.04 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 4,126$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.4 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48d9…0894backed Yes | 0c | 3,681$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7726…4aeebacked Yes | 9c | 2,919$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.56 | 112 | 27.7%31 W · 81 L | +12.3wins | +0.11per pick | 17cpaid | +175.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 5c | 2,206$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.14 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b7…b863backed Yes | 11c | 1,664$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.06 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 10c | 1,028$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 7c | 1,012$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ce…d90bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 876.67$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.49 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 10c | 803.51$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.17 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 3c | 586.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 6c | 564.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 16c | 533.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.98 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 507$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 79c | 488$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.48 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 475.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 396.5$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.6 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 382.24$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.34 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 353.8$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 332.74$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 11c | 314.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2287…139ebacked Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 4c | 299.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 263.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 203.54$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 201$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 18c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 12c | 194.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 79c | 193.43$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 15c | 186.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae7…2419backed Yes | 6c | 183.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 16c | 177.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22aa…e247backed Yes | 24c | 168.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb34b…586abacked Yes | 6c | 165.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505e…1c76backed Yes | 22c | 151.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.83 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 15c | 150.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.11 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…55eabacked Yes | 14c | 145.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3af…f4f8backed Yes | 19c | 133.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 16c | 131.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 20c | 126.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 19c | 125.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 80c | 123$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d98…a232backed Yes | 25c | 121.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a4…73ebbacked Yes | 15c | 117.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 114.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 18c | 110$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…a8cdbacked Yes | 18c | 102.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 168 | 40.5%68 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 15c | 98.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 18c | 98.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 13c | 90.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 18c | 84.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…847fbacked Yes | 20c | 83.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.78 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…b0aebacked Yes | 21c | 83.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…17e5backed No | 77c | 78.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.37 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 18c | 76.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed No | 78c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 58.96$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.92 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 17c | 58.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 79c | 31.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 80c | 31.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc9…0b92backed No | 79c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 22.55$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 3°C or below on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 4°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 5°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.