TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2e28…cf34

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
108
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
1

Best Category: Weather, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 52 out of 100; worst Ligue 1 at 50.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT3030%9 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-12.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 30 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will February 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.67
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+134.6%+$51.11
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.35
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.13
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.97
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+204.4%+$39.48
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.09
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.67
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+125.5%+$41.63
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.6
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.49
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+427.1%+$45.46
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.38
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.26
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+128.3%+$13.2
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 50-51°F on March 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.86
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 84°F or higher on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.65
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+127%+$87.05
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+128.8%+$29.56
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.13
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$20.72
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 7°C on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+112.8%+$11.77
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$46.94
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.85
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 13°C on March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$23.85
Showing 25 of 30 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT1833.3%6 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Serie A — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Genoa CFC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.05
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$272.55
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$172Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$172.15
Will Parma Calcio 1913 win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.65
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.43
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$51.1
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+562.2%+$759.85
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Hellas Verona FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$223.93
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$535Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$534.95
Will US Cremonese win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.6
Will US Lecce vs. US Cremonese end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$153Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$153.38
Will US Lecce win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$191Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+144%+$274.44
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$129.3
Will Atalanta BC vs. Udinese Calcio end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+284.6%+$168.13
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$38.57
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+66.9%+$88.22
Will Cagliari Calcio vs. Como 1907 end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$52.8
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$35.2
All 18 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+27.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+1,328.6%+$193.72
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.38
Will Andrew Tate post 100-129 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+159.4%+$164.88
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$70.76
Will Andrew Tate post 0-99 posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$157Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$157.02
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.94
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from March 9 to March 11, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.71
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+226.4%+$339.06
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.88
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.11
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.36
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$229Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$228.71
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$577Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+47.9%+$276.06
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$172.88
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$18.34
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$62.53
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from March 5 to March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$15.84
All 17 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.61
Will Paris FC win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.46
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$204Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$203.51
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Paris FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+316.7%+$258.4
Will FC Metz win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.48
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+30%+$56.49
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. FC Metz end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.73
Will AJ Auxerre vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+263.5%+$108.73
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$75.1
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$33.47
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$19.34
Will Angers SCO win on 2026-03-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+284.3%+$33.29
Will FC Nantes vs. Angers SCO end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$13.95
All 13 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-27.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+257.1%+$169.99
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.58
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-03-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.18
Will Villarreal CF vs. Elche CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.95
Will Elche CF win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.91
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$68.06
Will Athletic Club vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$39.65
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$28.54
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$143Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+47.7%+$68.19
All 9 picks, newest first.
Mls Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+63%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Mar 26, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.