Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1eb1e5611546d16dfd707f218da18c1d4d60d99172577ee32353553647890f19
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,934
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,934 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed Yes | 0c | 30,336$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 28c | 999.06$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.65 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 19c | 489.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.24 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 22c | 481$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.19 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 61c | 419.77$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.93 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 10c | 357.42$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 20c | 354$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 346.01$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.52 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 328$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 35c | 318.63$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.41 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 24c | 315.87$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 35c | 301.36$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.72 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 65c | 299.99$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.27 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 58c | 296.34$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 4c | 292.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99cb…4bc2backed No | 80c | 290.87$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 25c | 277.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 15c | 264.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.54 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 260.99$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 65c | 255.86$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 13c | 254.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked No | 52c | 239.64$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.83 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 24c | 234.38$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.23 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 218.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 15c | 209.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 199.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6b…3d50backed Yes | 11c | 197.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 66c | 195.8$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 194.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x672f…13ccbacked Yes | 50c | 191.81$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 330 | 58.8%194 W · 136 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…f5aabacked Yes | 30c | 190$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 184.49$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.78 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 75c | 159.88$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 38c | 159.83$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 49c | 156.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 33c | 155.37$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 149.91$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 140.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.53 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 20c | 139.91$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 18c | 130$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 65c | 129$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 11c | 128.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 16c | 118.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fae…8491backed Yes | 20c | 111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 108$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 47c | 100.66$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.24 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd088…a3eabacked No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.09 | 79 | 72.2%57 W · 22 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x089b…c619backed No | 75c | 97.47$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 75 | 76%57 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba5…2999backed Yes | 14c | 94.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 26c | 94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2574…c8a5backed Yes | 21c | 92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed Yes | 24c | 89.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 27c | 89.64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…abdbbacked Yes | 28c | 82.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 76c | 79.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 21c | 79.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 77c | 76.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 73.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 19c | 73.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 72.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 49c | 72.15$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 42c | 71.21$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 38c | 65.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.27 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 80c | 62.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 62.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 46c | 61.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.81 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 30c | 60.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…9621backed No | 66c | 60.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 17c | 59.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 76c | 56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 47c | 53.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 21c | 52.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cd…043fbacked No | 78c | 52.47$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 56 | 66.1%37 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 31c | 52.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe08e…d9f9backed No | 80c | 52$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…4c9bbacked Yes | 20c | 50.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b7…8cedbacked No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d73…43f6backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 116 | 19.8%23 W · 93 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…9c24backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 77c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…bf13backed No | 73c | 41.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 76cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 39.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 38.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 37.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x815c…2851backed Yes | 38c | 37.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e40…224ebacked No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -10.9wins | -0.09per pick | 67cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.88 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0094…58febacked No | 78c | 34.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed No | 40c | 34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0848…1aeebacked No | 79c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 26.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e6a…13cebacked Yes | 39c | 25.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc771…7ee2backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.