Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x208e8e838a31106dcba8b6b73d311ab4652d69f5cfba29b4fc478efe0f116a99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,804
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,804 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2706…1f04backed Yes | 11c | 5,462$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.07 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa01…b923backed Yes | 8c | 676.53$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 5c | 633.02$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.74 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…c587backed Yes | 23c | 529.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.96 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 18c | 481$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.88 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed No | 69c | 325$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.14 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 73c | 319.07$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.92 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 30c | 313.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.43 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed No | 77c | 312.81$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 13c | 308$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.88 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed Yes | 11c | 236.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 17c | 234.12$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 233.18$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 7c | 230.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 13c | 193.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 79c | 148.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 26c | 143.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed No | 71c | 141.16$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 79c | 137.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 17c | 135$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 12c | 119.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 30c | 118.89$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 250 | 29.2%73 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 106.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca5…9ababacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -10.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 71c | 92$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.8 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 90.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0bb…f5aabacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 13c | 85.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 70c | 70.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…dcebbacked Yes | 31c | 61.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed Yes | 30c | 60.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 31c | 60.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 29c | 58.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 30c | 54.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 78c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…e4c5backed No | 76c | 52.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 87 | 48.3%42 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 21c | 52.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b07…a7c5backed No | 71c | 49.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 71c | 48.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 71c | 42.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0eb…3c9cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ae…db12backed No | 67c | 35.08$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38ff…1acdbacked No | 70c | 34.14$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 67c | 33.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fd…2d64backed No | 71c | 33.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bcc…77b0backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf913…42d5backed No | 69c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce0c…9c24backed No | 71c | 28.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe211…c34fbacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 71c | 23.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 78c | 23.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 18.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed No | 72c | 15.73$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 131 | 22.1%29 W · 102 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 68c | 15.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked No | 72c | 14.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd9…c2e2backed No | 70c | 14.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +224.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 79c | 14.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.02 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.