Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21c76ccdb5b754d5781efe7e97974e39d2b95a282704993f3a5b37d49015f31b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,850
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,850 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc99f…aeb1backed No | 2c | 9,291$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.95 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -74%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 1c | 7,723$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…d749backed No | 0c | 6,111$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3877…fbf1backed Yes | 52c | 1,439$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.4 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 10c | 807.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…44d4backed No | 60c | 780.75$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.5 | 249 | 66.7%166 W · 83 L | +15.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…95eebacked No | 15c | 649.94$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 23c | 586.88$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.8 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 42c | 481$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.87 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 477.18$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.97 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 426.09$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.1 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 355.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 328$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa37d…b2b4backed Yes | 50c | 312.71$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 321 | 57.3%184 W · 137 L | +17.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 58c | 288.8$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.42 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 37c | 275.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.06 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 44c | 273.37$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.1 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 268.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked Yes | 59c | 265.36$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.55 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 261.3$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.2 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 225.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 65c | 215$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.74 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4635…6c48backed Yes | 47c | 211.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.35 | 67 | 35.8%24 W · 43 L | -7.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x22fe…20c6backed Yes | 48c | 209.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.3 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 208.14$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 31c | 187.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.79 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 46c | 176.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.46 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c28…0d2abacked No | 56c | 157.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 154.05$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.62 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked No | 33c | 153.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccd…1ec9backed No | 62c | 149.99$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -61%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…a3aabacked Yes | 41c | 144$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9f…f70abacked Yes | 43c | 140$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 61c | 134.98$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.34 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 133.7$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.26 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 59c | 129$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed Yes | 42c | 122.72$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.7 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 31c | 113$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.97 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c2…7a17backed No | 58c | 112$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.78 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 61c | 110.03$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.03 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 53c | 105.69$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c4a…41f4backed No | 69c | 101$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b57…52c4backed Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 39c | 98.67$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.61 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe228…1e29backed No | 62c | 96.21$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.65 | 75 | 30.7%23 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0574…e49fbacked Yes | 42c | 92.88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.88 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 57c | 87.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffc…ce04backed No | 31c | 86.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.98 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…7f20backed No | 60c | 84.78$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 29c | 81.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5830…f928backed Yes | 34c | 81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 51c | 79.62$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9b7…ac89backed Yes | 41c | 75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 30c | 72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…3c05backed No | 60c | 71.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 67.09$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 66c | 63.88$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960f…56d2backed No | 57c | 63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b7…adf5backed Yes | 42c | 62.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9665…5fb6backed Yes | 42c | 60.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c0…5443backed Yes | 43c | 60.9$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.82 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 58c | 57.42$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.34 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fe…5ddfbacked No | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fd…5eb2backed No | 59c | 57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed Yes | 69c | 54.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 72c | 52.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…cf34backed Yes | 44c | 52.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba0b…7132backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 72c | 48.79$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x703b…2f28backed No | 62c | 48.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda3c…ffd8backed Yes | 52c | 47.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd04…c183backed No | 53c | 47.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5d…f6cfbacked No | 60c | 47.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 45.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 60c | 45.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 44c | 44.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfeb…1461backed No | 65c | 44.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 73c | 43.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 33c | 43.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.19 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 53c | 42.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 63c | 40$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b3…240ebacked Yes | 36c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ea…98e6backed No | 61c | 39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 73cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfcc…1d02backed Yes | 40c | 37.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 69c | 37.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449d…e576backed No | 65c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…42a2backed Yes | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 63c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa680…459bbacked Yes | 43c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…4a9ebacked Yes | 42c | 34.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b4…27efbacked No | 67c | 34.42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…f0a0backed Yes | 43c | 32.42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +82%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 41c | 31.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 64c | 31.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on March 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 75°F or below on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be 90°F or higher on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on March 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.