TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbe34…8ee7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
180
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Weather, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Weather at 52 out of 100; worst CS2 at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 9, 2026, EDT16355.2%90 W · 73 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 163 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in March 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT+25%+$4.29
Will Seattle have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$179Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.3%+$54.14
Will NYC have between 4 and 5 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$141Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.4%+$55.39
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.91
Will Seattle have between 3 and 4 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+40%+$111.31
Will NYC have more than 6 inches of precipitation in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+30.4%+$33.32
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.67
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 59°F or below on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$118Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$118.32
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 17°C or below on March 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$53.53
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.33
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$7.87
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C or higher on March 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+47.7%+$41.04
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C or below on March 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.3
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on March 18?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+44.7%+$62.75
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 48-49°F on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$305.62
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+233.3%+$53.35
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.8
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.81
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 15°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.32
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 46-47°F on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+35.2%+$43.18
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+68.4%+$10.15
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.51
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$102Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+59.3%+$60.7
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$47.04
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$40.88
Showing 25 of 163 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 14, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick34cpaid+8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Margot Robbie attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$58.32
Will Connor Storrie attend the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.98
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jayson Tatum: Rebounds O/U 6.5backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+49.4%+$13.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group Stagebacked Cloud Rising · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.41
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Contra vs LYON - Map 2 Winnerbacked Contra · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nebula3 FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.