Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe63e8f0b46befc5a024ea6ad9dd85e0409ee648d1f76bc6c501ae7e08e0d473e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,933 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62ec…5f25backed No | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 74c | 738.99$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 510.76$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 27c | 483.84$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.83 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 17c | 236$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.07 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 229.74$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 15c | 211.95$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.94 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 23c | 172.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 47c | 168.84$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.8 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 17c | 164.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 9c | 160$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 156.76$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 79c | 154.99$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.44 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 17c | 149.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a5…e304backed No | 77c | 133.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.06 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd1…dff6backed Yes | 55c | 127$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.74 | 58 | 37.9%22 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 16c | 121.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 13c | 107.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.29 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 21c | 102.94$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.25 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 63c | 82.44$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 30c | 76.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 15c | 66.34$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 33c | 62.78$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 20c | 60.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.92 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc448…085ebacked Yes | 19c | 60$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.6 | 219 | 19.6%43 W · 176 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 55.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a84…e23abacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 23c | 43.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.37 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a9…9bc9backed Yes | 27c | 36.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 18.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 18.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…1465backed No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or below on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.