Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8089e21b9b02e2d5e335c6101a1cd1546d02b8c6387d2450e6dbd699e5e2a5e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,793 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 565.69$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 6c | 496.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 340.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 10c | 322.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 25c | 298.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x393d…6b95backed Yes | 35c | 282.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 10c | 253$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 36c | 250$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.39 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 21c | 233.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.28 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a7…5c41backed Yes | 11c | 199.04$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…6534backed Yes | 11c | 184.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 65c | 181.05$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.53 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed No | 75c | 150.55$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 35c | 147.86$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 68c | 147$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 134.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8cb…5ababacked Yes | 23c | 128.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 30c | 124.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.59 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 9c | 120.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 34c | 113.17$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 112.84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 30c | 103.15$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 35c | 99.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 35c | 99.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 98.78$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 83.96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 68c | 77.03$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.41 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 20c | 75.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 71c | 73.81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.17 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 60.6$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 60.3$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 34c | 59.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 32c | 55.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…5e5dbacked No | 68c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 24c | 52.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked No | 73c | 44.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 43.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 26c | 38.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 39c | 34.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 73c | 34.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 70c | 32.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 64c | 31.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…b844backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked No | 67c | 27.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…8e7abacked No | 65c | 24.61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 64c | 22.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…f2b4backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6af…fc2fbacked No | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 31 | 64.5%20 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 66c | 19.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.55 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 66c | 18.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.