Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc15c8e46a3379777d0dd609bb962ba1f88286d8abc0093c7e44537e9057019
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 346.65$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 286.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 58c | 284.77$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 253$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 45c | 250$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.09 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 232.6$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.05 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 14c | 185.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 58c | 173.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 31c | 171.77$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 63c | 163$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.7 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38f2…6534backed No | 62c | 160.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b1…ab63backed Yes | 61c | 137.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.5 | 385 | 47.5%183 W · 202 L | +16.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 34c | 125.51$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 45c | 111.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4a…1de1backed No | 67c | 106.22$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.9 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…3176backed Yes | 40c | 101$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.4 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4013…406bbacked Yes | 39c | 99.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 42c | 99.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662b…eb47backed No | 55c | 95.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 48c | 87.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 85.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.33 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 64c | 85.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 49c | 82.57$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.72 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 37c | 81.37$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…f3e2backed Yes | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 75c | 79$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 39c | 75.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 34c | 75.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 39c | 71.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 67.87$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 40c | 66.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 34c | 63.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed Yes | 44c | 62.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.51 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 47c | 59.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.87 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 44c | 55.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 36c | 54.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 37c | 54.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2b…b2aebacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 204 | 59.8%122 W · 82 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 45c | 49.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 42c | 47.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 49c | 47.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 59c | 47.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 26c | 44.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 28c | 43.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…6d76backed No | 66c | 40.88$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…d6b7backed Yes | 38c | 40.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 39.04$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0416…616cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 71.2%42 W · 17 L | +6.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…1465backed Yes | 41c | 38.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…8b38backed Yes | 40c | 37.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 38c | 37.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 54c | 34.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 46c | 34.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 39c | 34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a2…27a0backed No | 62c | 32.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a8…cc3abacked No | 52c | 31.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 29.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…b6ecbacked Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 39c | 28.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 63c | 27.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 68c | 27.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 48c | 22.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 59c | 21.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46cd…bb68backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 62c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 59c | 16.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.