Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76dbbe52d9805d3e47a2c4ee87295c12a23bdadf90060731b9f3af0c1c384e93
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,072
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,072 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbc4…c01ebacked No | 0c | 16,500$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,145$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.44 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 15c | 329.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.5 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 315.9$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.44 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 28c | 286.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.22 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 59c | 284.55$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 25c | 268.93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.72 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 13c | 264.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 37c | 248.11$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 41c | 241.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.3 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 13c | 240.76$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.46 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 19c | 230.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.62 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 15c | 225.17$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.45 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 209.88$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.41 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 44c | 200$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae7…80fcbacked Yes | 45c | 194.69$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.83 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e40…f89cbacked No | 66c | 179.4$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.68 | 245 | 69.8%171 W · 74 L | +30.9wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 36c | 176.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.84 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 162.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.68 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 18c | 155.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.71 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 49c | 152.77$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 143.06$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.86 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 29c | 141.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.83 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 140.06$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.65 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…b3b0backed No | 53c | 140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 23c | 139.76$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.11 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf743…d386backed Yes | 20c | 131.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.96 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5052…564cbacked Yes | 21c | 121.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.12 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 39c | 119.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 16c | 118.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.97 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes | 54c | 111$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.93 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 59c | 110$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.2 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 53c | 103.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.86 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2758…3176backed Yes | 50c | 100.68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0370…48d3backed No | 45c | 99.59$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 33c | 91.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 35c | 87$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 34c | 85.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.91 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 29c | 83.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa2…931bbacked Yes | 18c | 77.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.11 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x656e…c5eabacked Yes | 19c | 70.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 59c | 70.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 66.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 65c | 64.08$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 50c | 62.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.18 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 60.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x203e…b7e1backed No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 56c | 58.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 77c | 53.75$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…fb3cbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 190 | 60.5%115 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 50c | 48.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 36c | 48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked No | 79c | 47.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 294 | 69.7%205 W · 89 L | +26.7wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8350…8efebacked Yes | 41c | 43.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.72 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cf…8cf8backed Yes | 24c | 42.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc0…3748backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 53c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c8…e944backed No | 69c | 36.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -34%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a19…073dbacked Yes | 77c | 33.77$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 164 | 52.4%86 W · 78 L | +8.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 79c | 31.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed5…72a6backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…1465backed Yes | 50c | 27.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.45per pick | 65cpaid | -60%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 60c | 23.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 46c | 21.65$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b7…8030backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 125 | 64.8%81 W · 44 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf90…9345backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1713…10fabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 80c | 19.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 78c | 12.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 11°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 12°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 14°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on March 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on March 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.