TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbbc4…c01e

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
48
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst Lol at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-68.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on April 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.52
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 11°C on March 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.4
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on March 29?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.5
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 21°C on March 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 13°C on March 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$33
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$180.4
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on March 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$275Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$275.4
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$16,503Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$13,497.33
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February 23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$7,500Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+100%+$7,500.18
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 3°C on February 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$16
Will the highest temperature in London be 6°C on February 14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$923Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$923.37
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C or higher on February 11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$255Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$255
All 12 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 13, 2026, EDT1070%7 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$271Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT+102.8%+$278.85
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$267
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$4,664Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+71.5%+$3,336
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,004Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$1,004
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,812Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+231.2%+$4,188.28
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$4,368Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+78.6%+$3,432
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$742Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$742
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+78.6%+$286
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,115Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+99.5%+$1,109.9
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+52.2%+$68.6
All 10 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1060%6 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Alexandra Eala vs Ekaterina Alexandrovabacked Alexandrova · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$803Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+37%+$297
Open Sud de France: Titouan Droguet vs Aleksandar Kovacevicbacked Droguet · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$648Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+85.2%+$552
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sonay Kartal vs Sara Bejlekbacked Bejlek · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$360Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+233.3%+$840
Open Sud de France: Martin Damm vs Roberto Bautista Agutbacked Damm · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+66.7%+$600
Transylvania Open: Maja Chwalinska vs Olga Danilovicbacked Danilovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$708Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$708
Open Sud de France: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Luca Nardibacked Nardi · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$840Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+78.6%+$660
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Sara Bejlek vs Jelena Ostapenkobacked Ostapenko · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$546Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$546
Ostrava Open: Alycia Parks vs Julia Grabherbacked Parks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$682Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$278.4
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Janice Tjen vs Maya Jointbacked Joint · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$282Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$282
Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Paula Badosa vs Aliaksandra Sasnovichbacked Badosa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$612Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST-100%-$612
All 10 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick61cpaid-54.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 12, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Valorant Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffsbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$732Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+63.9%+$468
All 1 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
KHL: Lada Togliatti vs. Dinamo Minskbacked Dinamo Minsk · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$675Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+33.3%+$225
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will XRP dip to $1.10 February 16-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$159.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 31, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next government funding bill be passed on January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$64.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.