Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25769d222372fbe04f44acb4f85a821de608389a29de6e093cc1b8bcd92489f6

Rebuilt 35 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 29, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $985,056
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $685,917

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $985,056 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 609 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	17c	21,653$3,731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,730.99	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	2c	18,840$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.17	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	12c	14,814$1,816 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,815.96	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	16c	14,795$2,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,319.74	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	18c	14,545$2,640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,639.89	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	12,964$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	24c	12,875$3,074 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,073.56	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	19c	10,527$1,985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,984.89	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No	80c	10,425$8,317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,107.55	108	57.4%62 W · 46 L	-6.6wins	-0.06per pick	64cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	18c	9,090$1,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,602.31	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	24c	8,748$2,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,110.72	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x022a…351dbacked No	64c	8,741$5,609 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,131.96	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+57.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	16c	8,646$1,360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,359.59	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	13c	8,388$1,061 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,061.06	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	27c	7,088$1,916 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,916.08	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e6…2f0fbacked Yes	15c	6,854$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$999.54	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.7wins	-0.24per pick	38cpaid	-73.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc940…02d2backed Yes	9c	6,581$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.68	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+1.8wins	+0.18per pick	12cpaid	+274.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	3c	5,912$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.9	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	5,858$954 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$954.34	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes	18c	5,557$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	27c	5,325$1,430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,430	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	28c	5,300$1,497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,496.8	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	16c	5,106$828 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$827.83	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	4,846$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.8	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	5c	4,477$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.98	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e9…d5aebacked Yes	11c	4,323$467 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$466.53	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0899…2bc6backed Yes	2c	4,231$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.94	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-47.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe37b…0e27backed Yes	31c	4,112$1,264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,264.15	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-54.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38d0…899bbacked Yes	33c	4,071$1,362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,361.61	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	+25.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	2c	3,971$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.75	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	28c	3,808$1,065 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,065.42	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	6c	3,792$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.66	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	3,549$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.59	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	3,510$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	26c	3,509$899 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$898.92	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	3,495$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9eaa…3feabacked Yes	22c	3,493$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.51	40	25%10 W · 30 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	12c	3,256$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.99	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	3,250$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	17c	3,224$539 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$539	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	28c	3,208$895 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$894.78	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	75c	3,132$2,336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$795.52	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes	13c	3,031$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.56	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	74c	3,028$2,247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$781.42	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	22c	3,015$675 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$674.57	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	30c	2,937$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$889.2	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	10c	2,866$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	27c	2,783$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$763.29	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f4…12a9backed Yes	1c	2,776$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	94	23.4%22 W · 72 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	2c	2,750$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.65	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	33c	2,505$827 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$826.65	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	2,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	31c	2,417$750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes	13c	2,398$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	34c	2,372$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.72	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	20c	2,364$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.21	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	2,281$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.06	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	71c	2,250$1,607 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$642.84	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x16c6…9534backed Yes	29c	2,243$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$658.09	49	30.6%15 W · 34 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	24c	2,179$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.58	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	1c	2,107$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.85	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes	15c	2,100$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	21c	2,091$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.29	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes	6c	2,074$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.42	149	23.5%35 W · 114 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac28…0d06backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	93	7.5%7 W · 86 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-51%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0888…e6e3backed Yes	5c	2,000$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.61	154	13%20 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	22c	1,994$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	17c	1,900$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.2	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	1,887$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.07	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	19c	1,759$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.12	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e24…67d0backed Yes	1c	1,756$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc647…c6e4backed Yes	3c	1,744$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.29	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	69c	1,740$1,200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$540.06	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x729a…92d8backed Yes	33c	1,726$575 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$575	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	28cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35bb…6e36backed Yes	3c	1,704$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…3e7cbacked Yes	29c	1,700$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.43	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-3.1wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-55.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8dc5…d36abacked Yes	26c	1,662$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.3	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	21cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	6c	1,648$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	23c	1,597$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.56	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	38c	1,574$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	13c	1,545$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	27c	1,542$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.26	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	1,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	1,495$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.68	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,492$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4dd3…f0efbacked Yes	20c	1,460$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294.08	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	1c	1,445$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	1,422$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.35	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	12c	1,348$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.2	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	2c	1,324$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	6c	1,319$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.77	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	3c	1,283$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.21	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	1,282$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.77	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes	24c	1,255$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	4c	1,250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.95	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	12c	1,203$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.08	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	4c	1,187$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	3c	1,179$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.12	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event