Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a4afbc8a55ee277f926670d81f7999043de3f9fbef9aae2d029ed46fcfffc63

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $286,130
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $286,130 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 144 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	0c	12,180$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.26	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,994$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.99	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	9,047$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	0c	8,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	6,277$390 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$390.26	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1622…4d4ebacked Yes	0c	5,396$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	4,444$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.11	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,130$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.34	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	4,000$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	3,201$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.14	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c2e…e72ebacked Yes	3c	3,000$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50a…2da4backed Yes	2c	3,000$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a26…e1e5backed Yes	4c	2,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+165%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	2,400$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.68	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9278…8a12backed Yes	1c	2,294$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	2,218$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.6	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	2c	2,210$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.54	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	2,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7463…befbbacked Yes	4c	2,198$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+97.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	2,163$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.91	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	3c	2,163$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.59	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	13c	1,994$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.78	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,991$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	1,715$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.83	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc8…b4dabacked Yes	2c	1,700$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.6	146	25.3%37 W · 109 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	5c	1,608$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.56	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	13c	1,562$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	10c	1,500$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	8c	1,453$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.75	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	1,400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Yes	5c	1,400$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	8c	1,256$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	2c	1,110$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6469…d07cbacked Yes	13c	1,109$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb94…4059backed Yes	5c	1,100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	+150.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	7c	1,070$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a0e…6369backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9621…a7bfbacked Yes	9c	999.95$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	9c	999.93$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.99	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	991.6$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	2c	989.08$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	966.23$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.53	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	930.27$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.27	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa90…b224backed Yes	2c	909.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	8.3%2 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d8…238ebacked Yes	12c	899.97$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	7c	852.61$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.28	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83ba…7bfdbacked Yes	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	+245.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x304b…57b2backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+4.1wins	+0.05per pick	5cpaid	+105%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4c0…547ebacked Yes	6c	783.33$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9837…16aabacked Yes	12c	783.33$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff1…de19backed Yes	2c	769.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	8c	750$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	7c	743.27$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827d…b1f0backed Yes	7c	731.69$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.22	61	9.8%6 W · 55 L	-3.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-48%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa251…92b7backed Yes	9c	730.73$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.95	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	7c	714.29$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	712.22$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.59	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	5c	701.05$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.44	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	700$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ad2…e985backed Yes	10c	651.55$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.19	148	8.8%13 W · 135 L	+4.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	643.32$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.64	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf93…e9babacked Yes	9c	636.54$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd838…7a5bbacked Yes	4c	631.21$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.12	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	9c	600$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdef7…217fbacked Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	50	16%8 W · 42 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+96%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6634…7f32backed Yes	4c	599.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	152	11.2%17 W · 135 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	582.33$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.27	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	2c	577.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cbe…84e2backed Yes	7c	562.87$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc651…98efbacked Yes	4c	557.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	6cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9a…feb4backed Yes	5c	510$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.7	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+36.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	500.74$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…5a62backed Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bee…5628backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	97	16.5%16 W · 81 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	11c	490.77$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.89	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed Yes	10c	484.49$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.66	111	8.1%9 W · 102 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2694…415abacked Yes	8c	415.68$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.42	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8177…be85backed Yes	7c	408.62$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.27	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd231…8c11backed Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d9…6129backed Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-74.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d48…2e2abacked Yes	5c	399.99$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	56	8.9%5 W · 51 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3382…4b67backed Yes	10c	399.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	51	7.8%4 W · 47 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-20%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	9c	399.96$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd770…fa52backed Yes	12c	388.6$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.09	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf841…2ba5backed Yes	13c	384.42$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	150	21.3%32 W · 118 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb0…c8c0backed Yes	8c	350.13$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.01	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd31c…7424backed Yes	9c	334$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.06	44	6.8%3 W · 41 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-32%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x887f…a4cbbacked Yes	14c	321.43$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	30cpaid	0%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d7d…f83bbacked Yes	6c	315.9$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-76.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x017b…301dbacked Yes	10c	300$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	87	24.1%21 W · 66 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aa2…bd41backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	161	19.9%32 W · 129 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071f…8ac3backed Yes	11c	300$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cde…bf31backed Yes	6c	299.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x102d…c9afbacked Yes	12c	299.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	77	13%10 W · 67 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdcda…a696backed Yes	9c	299.97$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event