Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4d1e811ba40c024b94c916493f97e61dab316c9c2e7531fc3d162b9df32d28c

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 29, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $817,682
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $528,414

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $817,682 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	1c	29,395$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cd0…8e55backed Yes	1c	22,028$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	17,842$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.42	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	14,627$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.18	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa526…ee0dbacked Yes	1c	10,937$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.06	46	13%6 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa94a…73e7backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	0c	10,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43f1…06e5backed Yes	1c	8,686$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.4	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	8,309$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.07	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	8,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	7,704$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.02	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	1c	7,478$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.42	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	7,376$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.35	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	1c	7,189$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.09	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,362$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.84	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b47…8f6bbacked Yes	2c	6,203$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.52	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-77%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	1c	6,000$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.13	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xded4…28f7backed Yes	2c	5,602$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3064…d5f4backed Yes	2c	5,540$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.35	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf833…37f0backed Yes	1c	5,219$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.27	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	5,212$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.36	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	2c	4,977$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	1c	4,855$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	1c	4,695$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.17	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	4,329$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.06	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2fd2…1e85backed Yes	2c	4,319$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	1c	4,167$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.58	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	4,002$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	4,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	1c	3,968$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.29	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	3,697$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,658$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.92	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	3,645$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	3,182$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.68	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	1c	3,121$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.54	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	3,066$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.19	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ab…8840backed Yes	1c	3,064$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	3,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.47	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	3c	2,793$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.82	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	3c	2,741$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.15	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	1c	2,717$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.73	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa41a…0fd7backed Yes	1c	2,700$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,700$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.2	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes	2c	2,672$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.91	79	30.4%24 W · 55 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	2,667$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	1c	2,600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7900…1e3ebacked Yes	1c	2,560$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-81%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10a7…3986backed Yes	2c	2,550$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8dfd…956fbacked Yes	2c	2,546$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.85	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes	1c	2,525$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd61e…c34fbacked Yes	1c	2,504$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	40	0%0 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5643…5390backed Yes	2c	2,381$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.62	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	2c	2,378$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.95	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,361$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.38	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x272f…ba8abacked Yes	1c	2,275$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	30	20%6 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	1c	2,246$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.07	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc77c…1f1bbacked Yes	2c	2,102$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.86	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbbd9…a8a9backed Yes	1c	2,097$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.04	95	6.3%6 W · 89 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe92c…d714backed Yes	1c	2,009$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.32	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	1c	2,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	1c	1,962$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.3	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a3…df40backed Yes	1c	1,836$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	116	24.1%28 W · 88 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	1c	1,829$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	1c	1,800$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.66	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes	2c	1,799$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd891…68c8backed Yes	1c	1,722$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	2c	1,703$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.98	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa221…adfdbacked Yes	1c	1,685$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cc4…a9c3backed Yes	1c	1,682$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	1,600$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	1c	1,574$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	1,552$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.43	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	1c	1,509$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.43	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aab…14f4backed Yes	1c	1,486$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	24%6 W · 19 L	+2.6wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+70.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb2f6…d2a2backed Yes	1c	1,426$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,423$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.12	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa30c…52a8backed Yes	3c	1,406$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.4wins	+0.12per pick	21cpaid	+132.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	2c	1,383$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.42	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	1,364$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.66	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe87…83d6backed Yes	1c	1,239$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	48	16.7%8 W · 40 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e2…1321backed Yes	1c	1,204$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	1c	1,176$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.51	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	1,050$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	1c	1,044$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,036$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf985…1c0dbacked Yes	1c	1,035$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa64e…c752backed Yes	1c	1,003$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes	2c	1,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	265	16.6%44 W · 221 L	+11.7wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e2d…6088backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	1c	941.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.73	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	2c	940.1$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.99	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes	2c	905.63$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0425…3c26backed Yes	3c	892.86$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15fc…1549backed Yes	1c	888.04$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	1c	878.6$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0545…c832backed Yes	1c	877.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+116.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce9b…855dbacked Yes	2c	824.07$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes	3c	821.07$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	6cpaid	+31.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event