Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x077f2063b34a70bed1b389015caa77637b0872380ea6d90eb9c15accee821a3e

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jan 30, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $767,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $294,563

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $767,092 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 198 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	30,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,325$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	12,907$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes	0c	12,313$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.63	244	12.7%31 W · 213 L	-6.7wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbae…1d41backed Yes	1c	11,907$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	11,201$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.51	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,987$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.31	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	10,780$502 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$501.88	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	10,552$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	10,322$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.24	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5350…df2abacked Yes	0c	10,171$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf89…a739backed Yes	0c	9,104$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.52	107	15.9%17 W · 90 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	8,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	7,209$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.21	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8221…9207backed Yes	11c	6,957$781 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$780.56	50	28%14 W · 36 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-10%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	2c	6,829$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.53	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	0c	6,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	0c	5,412$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.37	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	5,080$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.94	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	5,000$437 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.99	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	4,695$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa02e…8331backed Yes	1c	4,598$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.86	106	10.4%11 W · 95 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc426…2700backed Yes	9c	3,916$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.29	67	6%4 W · 63 L	-2.8wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	3,800$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.54	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	3,685$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.4	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	3,677$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.57	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	5c	3,546$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.36	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	3,419$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	3,387$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,198$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,134$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.16	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,127$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,652$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.92	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	4c	2,600$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…085cbacked Yes	1c	2,586$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	2c	2,517$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.31	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8848…b9e2backed Yes	0c	2,170$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd669…f5e7backed Yes	5c	2,152$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.48	135	6.7%9 W · 126 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c5…d96abacked Yes	2c	2,120$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-85.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	3c	2,082$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.85	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	7c	2,044$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.79	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,036$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	2,000$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.47	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	2,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	2,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6304…8beabacked Yes	1c	2,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.44	69	11.6%8 W · 61 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e3…f1c2backed Yes	1c	1,987$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5dfa…9c89backed Yes	9c	1,918$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa4d…57b9backed Yes	1c	1,900$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	111	11.7%13 W · 98 L	+3.1wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	11c	1,772$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	1,771$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.83	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14cf…d019backed Yes	2c	1,640$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	78	11.5%9 W · 69 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	9c	1,629$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.97	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,520$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes	1c	1,509$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	1,425$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd0f…5aabbacked Yes	1c	1,400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x912f…42dcbacked Yes	1c	1,381$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-80.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10de…f022backed Yes	7c	1,353$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc6e2…c3cabacked Yes	11c	1,259$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.01	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	8c	1,205$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.96	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc73…2640backed Yes	9c	1,120$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.8	51	9.8%5 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3285…745fbacked Yes	1c	1,119$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	40	5%2 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	1c	1,109$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	2c	1,071$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.56	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0383…7eefbacked Yes	2c	1,047$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	263	14.8%39 W · 224 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	1,014$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.86	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb01f…574ebacked Yes	4c	1,002$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	103	12.6%13 W · 90 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x23fb…70b1backed Yes	2c	1,001$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x875d…acf2backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3506…a7ecbacked Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	112	8.9%10 W · 102 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3db7…375cbacked Yes	9c	976.36$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.52	61	6.6%4 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed Yes	7c	973.6$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.15	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	966.98$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.64	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5d6…e6d7backed Yes	3c	965$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.95	68	5.9%4 W · 64 L	-2.9wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	950$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80ad…f700backed Yes	11c	948.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.06per pick	26cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd82f…75ffbacked Yes	8c	863.37$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+42.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6030…d09cbacked Yes	4c	857.36$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.83	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8177…be85backed Yes	9c	829.44$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.4	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d44…7ba3backed Yes	7c	770$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.4	57	14%8 W · 49 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3b…88eabacked Yes	3c	769.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	204	13.2%27 W · 177 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-47.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3fe5…636cbacked Yes	12c	768.92$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	51	21.6%11 W · 40 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaceb…6253backed Yes	8c	762.55$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.14per pick	24cpaid	-72.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	2c	761.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.87	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	750.94$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.93	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	715$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.05	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	10c	700$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed Yes	9c	663.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.94	211	4.7%10 W · 201 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd21…3c10backed Yes	2c	653.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-51%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47c8…bb19backed Yes	9c	600$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	103	8.7%9 W · 94 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked Yes	9c	599.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	259	5.4%14 W · 245 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a01…ca6dbacked Yes	6c	595$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.64	31	9.7%3 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-31%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x83ba…7bfdbacked Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	10cpaid	+245.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event