TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6396…7e87

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
104
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 58 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST4314%6 W · 37 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$240
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$137.18
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$334Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$334.14
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$148Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$148.21
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$200
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$280
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$420
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$260
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$641Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+113.3%+$726.52
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$320Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$319.99
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$270Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$270
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$300
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$294Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$293.88
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+900%+$900
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$76.09
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$225Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$225
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+566.7%+$425
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$117
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$80
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 5, 2026, EST1353.8%7 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-13.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Timberwolves vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Clippers vs. Sunsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+66.7%+$40
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Grizzlies vs. Rocketsbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$45
Lakers vs. Bullsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+25%+$20
Kings vs. Pistonsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Magicbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+100%+$50
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+25%+$30
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 23, 2026, EST+26.6%+$53.16
Celtics vs. Pacersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Nets vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 11, 2026, EST+88.7%+$17.74
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+96.1%+$19.22
Thunder vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$500
All 13 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2026, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-32.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+35.1%+$26
Will Uber Technologies (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$71.99
Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$52
Will Bank First (BFC) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+33.3%+$17
Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+124.9%+$62.44
Will Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST+50%+$75.01
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+61.9%+$61.91
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1190.9%10 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.25per pick66cpaid+44.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$156
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+100%+$100
US x Iran meeting by February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$525Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+100%+$525
Will the next official US-Iran meeting be in Oman?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$470Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+28.2%+$132.45
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,445Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+38.4%+$555
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$240Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+51.6%+$123.93
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+42.9%+$75
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+25%+$30
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST+49.3%+$49.25
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+96.5%+$385.86
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+56%+$447.66
All 11 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST6100%6 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+32.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+1,205.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+50.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$55
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$260
All 2 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Jan 8, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 8, 2026, EST-100%-$100
All 2 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes (Featherweight, Main Card)backed Volkanovski · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+61.3%+$61.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$357Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$357.22
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.