Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcec474b0b2f696f75454f7ca71648e7c8e566b26e3a2d781f471836ffa1aff7e

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,827,374
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $934,312

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,827,374 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 431 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb100…6461backed Yes	3c	58,484$1,934 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,933.57	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	51,473$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	39,518$952 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.91	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	35,716$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.29	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	34,806$1,386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,386.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	31,238$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.24	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabbd…f261backed Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	23,278$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	20,838$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.08	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	19,991$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.99	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	22c	18,797$4,148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,147.99	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	18,734$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.04	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	3c	18,458$632 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$631.77	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	17,849$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes	0c	16,962$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	0cpaid	+6,150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	16,907$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.91	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	19c	16,277$3,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,161.81	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	14,379$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.11	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	14,003$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.64	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	11,965$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.28	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	11,776$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.44	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	8c	11,373$871 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$871.05	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	12c	10,562$1,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,290.57	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	1c	10,000$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.3	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	18c	9,837$1,742 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,742.35	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	1c	9,617$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.02	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	9,496$1,192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,191.73	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	3c	9,385$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.39	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	2c	9,197$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.32	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	8,375$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	8,224$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.59	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	8,184$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.11	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	11c	7,655$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.59	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	1c	7,504$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	6,537$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.39	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	8c	6,450$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.13	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	18c	6,418$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,135.66	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	6,331$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.14	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed No	68c	6,300$4,284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,016	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	6,100$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.15	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	10c	6,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	6,000$560 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$559.99	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	20c	5,779$1,141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,141.18	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	3c	5,694$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.4	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	5,500$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa66b…20c1backed Yes	0c	5,097$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+1,610.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f97…02e6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,936$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.03	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	4,782$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.22	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	7c	4,548$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.39	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	13c	4,434$556 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$556.01	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	12c	4,385$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$529.65	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	21c	4,300$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$887.88	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	13c	4,200$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.16	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	8c	4,086$337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$336.92	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	3,960$3,027 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$932.52	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	3,875$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1aa…16cfbacked No	76c	3,816$2,887 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$929.26	32	65.6%21 W · 11 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+20.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	3c	3,522$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.77	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd21…3c10backed Yes	11c	3,208$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$346.04	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	2c	3,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	38c	2,834$1,080 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,080	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe153…ba59backed No	71c	2,810$2,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$809.83	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.23per pick	35cpaid	+40.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	26c	2,757$723 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$723.43	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	17c	2,698$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449.23	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	16c	2,649$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.39	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	2,607$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.58	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.83	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c0c…4f2bbacked Yes	1c	2,441$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	104	31.7%33 W · 71 L	+7.3wins	+0.07per pick	25cpaid	+125.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	2,432$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.08	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	4c	2,400$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	19c	2,300$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.96	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c33…ce95backed Yes	25c	2,271$568 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.75	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x366c…ec01backed Yes	1c	2,260$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.97	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	2,214$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.11	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	2,200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa701…86a3backed Yes	14c	2,172$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes	10c	2,167$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.95	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	29c	2,055$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	10c	2,000$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.38	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	2,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.98	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	9c	2,000$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6396…7e87backed Yes	12c	2,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	43	14%6 W · 37 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	+47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74cc…d86bbacked Yes	3c	1,962$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+445.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,960$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.68	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	1c	1,926$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	20c	1,908$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.97	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b64…ae86backed No	80c	1,900$1,520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$380.4	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.20per pick	53cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	9c	1,810$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	8c	1,800$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.64	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1173…4dbfbacked Yes	9c	1,799$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.47	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	3c	1,727$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf984…24cebacked Yes	36c	1,700$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$615.6	73	20.5%15 W · 58 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe935…778dbacked Yes	3c	1,700$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.52	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	32c	1,640$519 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$518.86	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	1,571$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.05	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb03…eb4fbacked Yes	5c	1,523$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	17cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	35c	1,503$524 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$524.42	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	2c	1,450$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	1,440$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.64	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event