Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75f9ff7f538fedceead553c5449fdbd6255de4894491e7197124ef626a4aa011

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $631,536
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $213,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $631,536 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	0c	49,245$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	30,483$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.29	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	24,102$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	0c	20,210$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.1	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	10,062$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	0c	6,460$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	5,968$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.54	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	0c	5,597$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	5,557$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.52	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes	1c	4,990$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.92	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	0c	4,836$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.66	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	0c	4,385$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	0c	4,074$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	3,930$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.02	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	3,736$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.74	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	3,600$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.53	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	3,241$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.31	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	3c	3,030$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.75	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	3c	3,029$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	7c	3,013$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.03	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18c5…95c4backed Yes	7c	2,925$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	5c	2,716$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.05	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	3c	2,481$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.43	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,317$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,068$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.07	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,024$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.41	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	5c	1,995$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.68	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	1c	1,954$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	1,939$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.24	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	5c	1,870$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.87	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf62f…990bbacked Yes	1c	1,761$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.68	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-63%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	1,438$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.29	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x815d…94a0backed Yes	1c	1,400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.1	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-11%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe013…88d2backed Yes	1c	1,248$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b1e…1dc1backed Yes	2c	1,129$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes	1c	1,100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd55c…d703backed Yes	1c	1,079$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb0…24f0backed Yes	7c	1,030$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.1	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	7c	1,000$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7608…2b7dbacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+166.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	5c	906.16$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.78	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	874.67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.72	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	779.11$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.97	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	717.49$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.1	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7750…324dbacked Yes	3c	700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	575.61$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7acf…fa62backed Yes	7c	571.43$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	4c	556.96$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.74	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xacfb…ac3ebacked Yes	4c	504.59$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	3c	500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	141	29.1%41 W · 100 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	7c	499.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadc5…085cbacked Yes	4c	444$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	3c	399.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	6c	399.98$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	390.9$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.64	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	4c	382.14$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	5c	350$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.85	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	5c	324.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b69…2beabacked Yes	8c	239.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a12…619ebacked Yes	9c	222.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-14%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96db…64e2backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes	6c	199.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcfe5…7f8cbacked Yes	9c	188.89$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03d1…ac45backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x687b…f8a7backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.3wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+237.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event