Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x450b0cb5a57eb174aa3afca1810b810f8b9e7532c941a23c046f096e753bf440

Rebuilt 18 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,147,206
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $617,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,147,206 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	1c	60,875$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.84	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	1c	53,028$287 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	38,510$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.13	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3df9…71d8backed Yes	0c	31,616$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.62	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	0cpaid	+6,150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91d6…908dbacked Yes	0c	30,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	29,870$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.87	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	29,818$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.82	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	0c	24,302$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.6	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	20,497$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.54	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	0c	19,769$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.36	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	0c	17,058$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.12	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	0c	14,567$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.95	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	1c	10,207$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.75	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd85d…e660backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	10,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	0c	9,369$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.24	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x508c…a79ebacked Yes	1c	9,321$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0451…db79backed Yes	0c	8,880$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	1c	8,449$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	0c	7,984$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.36	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	3c	7,145$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.02	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	7,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…24cabacked Yes	0c	6,405$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.81	73	12.3%9 W · 64 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	0c	6,361$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.18	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	0c	6,249$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.74	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	0c	5,932$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.04	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,555$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	5,246$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.52	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes	0c	5,166$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	0c	5,163$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.24	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc14b…8fb9backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9387…9115backed Yes	2c	4,689$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c5f…7c46backed Yes	0c	4,572$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	0c	4,336$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8da4…131fbacked Yes	0c	3,394$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	0c	2,510$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x11c6…a836backed Yes	0c	2,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa922…67e8backed Yes	1c	2,277$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,125$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	2,098$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	1c	2,094$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9051…7423backed Yes	1c	1,683$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	20	10%2 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	1c	1,581$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	2c	1,384$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	1c	1,131$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4430…215ebacked Yes	1c	1,131$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	1c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	1c	968.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x407d…24bcbacked Yes	2c	538.88$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c25…7ba9backed Yes	2c	446.16$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event