Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ecd172383cd873332fbd17657a49b4e37a4756bc7f167e1c547c2e934c2310f

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,106,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $766,520

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,106,167 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 454 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	21c	33,175$6,851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,850.76	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	14c	16,397$2,337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,336.56	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	10c	14,722$1,534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,534.45	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	16c	14,078$2,274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,273.55	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	9c	13,891$1,291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,291.11	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	22c	9,920$2,217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,217.05	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	79c	9,845$7,754 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,090.87	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	9,790$1,029 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,029.2	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	18c	9,516$1,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,678.7	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	2c	9,463$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.21	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	17c	8,562$1,496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,496	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	13c	8,270$1,062 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,062.19	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	5c	7,899$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.52	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	7,800$1,136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,136.3	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	9c	7,535$669 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$669.03	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	11c	7,506$795 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$795.19	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	7,500$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$566.97	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	15c	7,133$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040.27	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	13c	6,400$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.25	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	27c	5,148$1,370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,370	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	15c	5,116$743 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$743.06	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	29c	5,086$1,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,500	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	19c	4,805$931 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$930.51	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	4c	4,719$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.91	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b3e…281bbacked Yes	28c	4,611$1,300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,300	25	28%7 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0451…db79backed Yes	11c	4,567$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$489	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	10c	4,542$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.13	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	22c	4,413$991 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990.97	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c54…257dbacked Yes	2c	4,350$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.8	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,878$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.41	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	6c	3,842$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes	15c	3,662$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.65	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	24c	3,385$807 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$806.97	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	4c	3,340$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.91	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	19c	3,311$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.76	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	11c	3,178$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.46	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	5c	3,083$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.1	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	14c	2,995$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.07	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb70…b2e2backed Yes	16c	2,865$462 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$462.01	67	17.9%12 W · 55 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+22%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	12c	2,631$310 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$310.38	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce15…bf9dbacked Yes	20c	2,620$518 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.57	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	8c	2,618$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	2,540$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.99	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	2,500$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.11	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	16c	2,448$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.23	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	10c	2,419$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.5	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	26c	2,400$618 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$618.19	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	78c	2,207$1,723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$484.49	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	2,112$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.65	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	1c	2,086$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c5f…7c46backed Yes	1c	2,065$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	18c	2,048$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.04	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	17c	2,033$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.48	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1592…1eeabacked Yes	9c	2,003$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	6c	2,000$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	10c	2,000$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	2,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe74e…f676backed Yes	1c	1,957$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd20…c958backed Yes	7c	1,932$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	82	19.5%16 W · 66 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	6c	1,912$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.04	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8d3…f102backed Yes	1c	1,901$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	20c	1,837$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.49	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	9c	1,822$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.64	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	14c	1,789$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.34	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	8c	1,770$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.73	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0446…4c79backed Yes	20c	1,766$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.87	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x94d3…f376backed Yes	18c	1,714$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.19	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.17per pick	39cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x66fe…c51abacked Yes	1c	1,700$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…085cbacked Yes	17c	1,697$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.12	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6189…8f69backed Yes	9c	1,661$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.91	42	11.9%5 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	1,659$1,324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$334.36	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	6c	1,638$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.43	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	16c	1,622$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.05	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	1,609$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.28	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1d…b3b0backed Yes	13c	1,604$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$213.49	86	22.1%19 W · 67 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe359…4515backed Yes	9c	1,594$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-68.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	1c	1,586$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.53	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	2c	1,556$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.87	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fd2…32d5backed Yes	18c	1,551$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e6…ea33backed Yes	7c	1,549$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.04	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	6c	1,500$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.39	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b3…1e06backed Yes	9c	1,500$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	212	15.1%32 W · 180 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	4c	1,500$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.52	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	8c	1,468$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.04	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa6…4094backed Yes	17c	1,455$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.12	307	14%43 W · 264 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No	80c	1,450$1,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290	29	79.3%23 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	72cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb97a…5855backed Yes	1c	1,445$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+174.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefe6…7c8fbacked Yes	11c	1,416$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	10c	1,406$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.76	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf163…6ccbbacked Yes	1c	1,371$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	9c	1,321$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fae…b67fbacked Yes	8c	1,262$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.6	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	14c	1,254$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.8	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	9c	1,212$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.33	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	7c	1,206$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.98	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbed5…f818backed Yes	3c	1,202$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d32…d12bbacked Yes	16c	1,164$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes	23c	1,160$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.53	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event