Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x279c035eafb32b99bbbf50ae790d22b8dc721cd350f631860876307edc292363

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,370,868
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $809,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,370,868 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	177,778$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.78	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	3c	174,597$4,822 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,822.24	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	0c	56,182$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x305a…2c69backed Yes	0c	48,700$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.7	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	33,510$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	5c	16,710$779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779.33	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	16,620$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.4	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	0c	13,334$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.21	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	9c	12,040$1,042 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,042	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	11,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	10,580$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.25	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	10,551$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.48	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes	1c	9,297$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.98	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	8,624$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.98	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	8,390$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.93	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	7,311$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.91	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0451…db79backed Yes	1c	6,003$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	1c	6,003$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.25	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	5,956$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.12	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	1c	5,801$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	5,728$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	1c	5,364$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.17	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	1c	5,333$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.38	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	5,290$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.71	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	5c	5,256$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$278.75	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes	2c	5,252$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x824a…3100backed Yes	1c	5,218$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	5,159$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.55	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ffc…1787backed Yes	0c	5,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.09per pick	7cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae24…732cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	18cpaid	+44.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed Yes	2c	4,526$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	4,483$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.86	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	1c	4,467$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	4,460$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.85	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	7c	4,233$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.55	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	4,109$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.35	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,891$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.57	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	4c	3,870$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.17	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	2c	3,672$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.1	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	3,597$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.65	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	2c	3,445$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	2c	3,200$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.27	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	1c	3,198$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	4c	2,977$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2537…78c5backed Yes	1c	2,804$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.25	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f2…48c7backed Yes	1c	2,650$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.69	54	14.8%8 W · 46 L	-2.9wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	2,552$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	2,421$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.91	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	2c	2,303$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	2,200$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.93	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	1c	2,006$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	2,000$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes	3c	1,897$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.11	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x33cc…1dc5backed Yes	1c	1,802$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.03	50	32%16 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	2c	1,770$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	3c	1,667$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0b…a7dcbacked Yes	3c	1,651$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.09	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	1,650$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.34	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,620$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf5…829cbacked Yes	1c	1,604$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	40	10%4 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61dc…673dbacked Yes	1c	1,569$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	35	31.4%11 W · 24 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	28cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	1,567$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.47	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	3c	1,555$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.67	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	8c	1,543$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.41	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	1c	1,515$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe2db…533bbacked Yes	1c	1,511$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	3c	1,506$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.36	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41d1…b87ebacked Yes	1c	1,475$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4430…215ebacked Yes	4c	1,458$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c87…eb0dbacked Yes	1c	1,445$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.81	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	10c	1,440$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.43	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	1c	1,378$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x006d…5cd7backed Yes	1c	1,252$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	30	3.3%1 W · 29 L	-3.2wins	-0.11per pick	14cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	2c	1,244$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x407d…24bcbacked Yes	2c	1,199$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.93	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	1,165$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.69	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	1c	1,145$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	1c	1,087$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.09	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	4c	1,068$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9549…b936backed Yes	4c	1,067$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	36	25%9 W · 27 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9387…9115backed Yes	9c	1,054$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43aa…a6d2backed Yes	1c	1,045$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	4c	1,030$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.04	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae8b…f30fbacked Yes	2c	1,013$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e6…ea33backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	-21.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa664…1b00backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5830…f928backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	166	11.4%19 W · 147 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+26.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked Yes	11c	933.83$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	10c	857.36$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.02	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	4c	818.7$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.16	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e6e…9441backed Yes	2c	811.66$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e50…98f0backed Yes	3c	797.43$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.16	330	27.9%92 W · 238 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f40…f202backed Yes	10c	758$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.19	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x75b2…e7ecbacked Yes	6c	708.61$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	52	17.3%9 W · 43 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	2c	700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8da4…131fbacked Yes	5c	670.79$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	2c	635.33$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event