Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5bfd7e8ba95d9f64c3cae369c568d90e7eb3a0a5f134992d16e3bcba1732ff8

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 9, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,495,526
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $1,027,042

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,495,526 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x50a8…143fbacked Yes	0c	177,778$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.78	46	2.2%1 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	1cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	14c	36,936$5,330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,329.97	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	1c	35,772$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	32,875$627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$626.55	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	23,976$2,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,323.77	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	20,302$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	1c	19,662$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	1c	15,000$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	13,833$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.99	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	2c	13,477$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	20c	12,666$2,574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,574.49	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	34c	11,050$3,770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,770	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	10,934$580 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.99	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	20c	10,415$2,066 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,065.66	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	10c	10,397$1,002 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,001.85	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	3c	10,356$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.88	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d15…9ff5backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	14c	8,661$1,252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,251.56	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes	8c	8,559$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.53	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	8,264$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	7c	7,853$549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$548.97	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	21c	7,716$1,629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,629.45	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	7,038$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.24	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6c97…6c56backed Yes	0c	7,033$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	77c	6,866$5,293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,573.45	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	6,344$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.53	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	4c	6,301$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.07	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	0c	5,992$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.9	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	7c	5,975$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.98	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	18c	5,506$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	5,078$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.89	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	5,048$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.32	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f14…905dbacked Yes	10c	5,021$498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$498	49	24.5%12 W · 37 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	19cpaid	+64%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	0c	4,933$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.67	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	4,510$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.31	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	23c	4,332$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$978.63	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	78c	4,265$3,347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$917.98	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	6c	4,258$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.03	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	9c	4,150$362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$361.78	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa752…e19fbacked Yes	4c	4,089$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.23	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+4.7wins	+0.12per pick	19cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	4,051$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.78	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8095…e66fbacked Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	15c	3,979$614 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$613.9	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb97a…5855backed Yes	1c	3,852$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.05per pick	13cpaid	+174.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	3,845$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.53	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	3,817$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.43	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	3c	3,725$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.4	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	21c	3,557$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.32	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	5c	3,377$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.93	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	3,326$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.51	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes	9c	3,286$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.19	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	7c	3,219$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.08	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	5c	3,157$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.85	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	4c	3,139$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.96	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	3c	3,118$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.07	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	3,042$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.81	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	77c	2,869$2,216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$653.15	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9583…bd4dbacked Yes	0c	2,766$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	2,753$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.66	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…085cbacked Yes	3c	2,679$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.23	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	2,664$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	2c	2,632$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	5c	2,590$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c68…878dbacked Yes	32c	2,540$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800.1	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-1.9wins	-0.07per pick	39cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked Yes	2c	2,430$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.87	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1c…aebebacked Yes	24c	2,403$567 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$567.16	131	21.4%28 W · 103 L	-4.4wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x010c…6134backed Yes	3c	2,342$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.67	129	14.7%19 W · 110 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8be0…bee3backed Yes	1c	2,336$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ef5…9f88backed Yes	1c	2,325$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.17	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	2,322$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.26	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	10c	2,294$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.66	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5117…4ae1backed Yes	1c	2,281$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.04	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	31c	2,219$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$680	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,211$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.19	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…a736backed Yes	25c	2,200$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.2	98	9.2%9 W · 89 L	-5.6wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	+42.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	77c	2,191$1,691 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$500.66	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	1c	2,182$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.1	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc201…eeb2backed Yes	1c	2,172$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.05	133	13.5%18 W · 115 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc45…d749backed Yes	1c	2,103$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x960b…4a03backed No	71c	2,013$1,438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$574.38	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	7c	2,000$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7d4…260ebacked Yes	2c	1,958$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.92	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x407d…24bcbacked Yes	21c	1,953$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.77	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1ca…4ac0backed No	74c	1,940$1,436 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.44	29	79.3%23 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.07per pick	72cpaid	+9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5052…cf5cbacked Yes	1c	1,930$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.58	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-53.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	1c	1,818$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	14c	1,797$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	1c	1,738$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,705$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	1,700$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.6	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…4058backed Yes	5c	1,661$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.52	264	10.6%28 W · 236 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-23%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes	4c	1,570$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.5	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8b9…7657backed Yes	18c	1,534$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.91	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.17per pick	39cpaid	+82.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	21c	1,518$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.08	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,509$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes	7c	1,497$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.72	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x835e…8d25backed Yes	1c	1,482$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	11c	1,446$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.04	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event