Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14fb29dcf268d5f6f93fbc70d77d0c58b24135242e0a5fe0272f031d4d2ff6a1

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 8, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,237,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $738,722

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,237,678 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 240 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	11c	62,387$6,633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,633.1	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	0c	50,000$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	33,809$1,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,679.2	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	22,057$1,362 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,362.39	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa752…e19fbacked Yes	1c	20,800$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	+4.7wins	+0.12per pick	19cpaid	+75.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	0c	20,035$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	18,205$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.59	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0431…1662backed Yes	27c	12,647$3,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,399.71	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-4.6wins	-0.15per pick	29cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	2c	12,254$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.64	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff4e…5502backed Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	38	2.6%1 W · 37 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	0cpaid	+2,531.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	14c	11,428$1,559 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,558.65	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a0…7e4fbacked Yes	18c	10,506$1,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,906.84	133	18%24 W · 109 L	-7.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	6c	9,792$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.07	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf640…bc3ebacked Yes	27c	9,453$2,566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,566.43	105	23.8%25 W · 80 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-23%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	8,819$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.51	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	8,333$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.34	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	7,588$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	13c	7,257$913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$913.02	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	0c	7,232$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.93	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	2c	6,986$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.81	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x970b…bcbcbacked Yes	0c	6,614$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	10c	6,160$636 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$635.83	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,801$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.53	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c87…eb0dbacked Yes	4c	5,643$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	5,352$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x342d…9efdbacked Yes	1c	5,012$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.16	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.08per pick	17cpaid	-50%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8dae…125cbacked Yes	9c	4,942$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.73	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfea2…581ebacked Yes	2c	4,515$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.12	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	1c	4,484$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.14	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	1c	4,274$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11d3…ce3fbacked Yes	1c	4,265$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.82	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+2.8wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x879d…b501backed Yes	1c	4,256$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.31	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+5.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	+38.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	2c	4,165$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.72	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	2c	4,137$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.1	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	4,058$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.5	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	0c	4,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	4c	3,996$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.36	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	3,996$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.67	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	5c	3,959$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.77	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…2093backed Yes	1c	3,866$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.66	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	+3.2wins	+0.07per pick	23cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	3,764$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	4c	3,670$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	1c	3,549$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.39	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	1c	3,390$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.35	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb378…eaf6backed Yes	3c	3,205$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.3	58	12.1%7 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	3,200$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0451…db79backed Yes	5c	3,024$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	3,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	1c	3,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3ee…6d4cbacked Yes	3c	2,993$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	4c	2,937$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,838$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.82	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,800$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x407d…24bcbacked Yes	6c	2,642$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.1	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5f89…ca8fbacked Yes	26c	2,566$667 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$666.91	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	36cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	2,477$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.84	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	4c	2,474$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.84	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	15c	2,200$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.8	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	14c	2,187$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.66	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	4c	2,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	10c	1,965$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.39	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	2c	1,964$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.92	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	8c	1,921$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.85	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	1c	1,909$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.77	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	28c	1,796$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b4…055ebacked Yes	3c	1,774$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	58	13.8%8 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d48…6573backed Yes	3c	1,700$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,616$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.03	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7248…753fbacked Yes	1c	1,600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	94	10.6%10 W · 84 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c89…c8aabacked Yes	4c	1,525$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.94	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.6wins	-0.10per pick	21cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	71c	1,504$1,070 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.32	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	5c	1,453$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	1,425$1,083 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$341.79	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6c34…8f4abacked Yes	4c	1,398$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-48%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	16c	1,391$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.72	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	28c	1,383$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387.99	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	11c	1,366$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.55	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	4c	1,313$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	9c	1,300$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.1	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3302…79c0backed Yes	1c	1,252$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.52	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0a…1979backed No	74c	1,249$924 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$325.53	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.34per pick	66cpaid	+60.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe5e…8054backed Yes	4c	1,219$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.77	92	22.8%21 W · 71 L	+7.2wins	+0.08per pick	15cpaid	+151.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbcc…2e56backed Yes	13c	1,202$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	114	17.5%20 W · 94 L	-6.2wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	3c	1,200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadc5…085cbacked Yes	6c	1,154$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.55	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95bd…b9bebacked No	78c	1,106$863 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$243.32	29	72.4%21 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	74cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	4c	1,064$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.54	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d16…4d02backed Yes	1c	1,061$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	2c	1,054$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c40…3d64backed Yes	1c	1,050$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9720…9aebbacked Yes	4c	1,030$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	241	14.1%34 W · 207 L	+11.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	9c	1,021$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	20c	1,016$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.73	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+13%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	999.98$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a16…2243backed Yes	11c	910$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-3.1wins	-0.17per pick	27cpaid	-84.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2537…78c5backed Yes	1c	882.88$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event