Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0e2e5f96d70f5396857402411025d20e62ce80e8447a009d440bc4b44d051d3

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 10, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $769,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $275,781

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $769,393 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	40,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	23,500$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	20,462$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.97	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	17,041$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	16,945$908 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$908.11	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes	0c	12,850$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.55	84	23.8%20 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	11,331$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa66b…20c1backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+1,610.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,787$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.39	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	9,769$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.01	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ecb…a693backed Yes	0c	7,930$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.97	122	4.9%6 W · 116 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+213.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	9c	6,000$542 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$541.63	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	1c	4,828$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.69	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf62f…990bbacked Yes	2c	4,584$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.95	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-63%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x39aa…583cbacked Yes	1c	4,385$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.03	592	25.3%150 W · 442 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	4,364$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.5	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	9c	4,300$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$383.98	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes	0c	4,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	7c	4,005$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.32	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes	1c	4,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	153	9.8%15 W · 138 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed Yes	6c	3,979$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.21	78	15.4%12 W · 66 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+57.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,706$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.56	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	3,627$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.63	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	0c	3,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	3,027$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.25	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	1c	3,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdba…e7a2backed Yes	1c	2,985$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	+67.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes	3c	2,920$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.82	115	9.6%11 W · 104 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0f3…42eabacked Yes	1c	2,782$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+2.0wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa4…9a1cbacked Yes	1c	2,600$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	95	8.4%8 W · 87 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	2,600$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.43	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	1c	2,568$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6993…c79abacked Yes	0c	2,464$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.11	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	2,400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.58	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	1c	2,352$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.77	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	4c	2,326$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.04	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,316$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.96	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	2,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4135…99d8backed Yes	1c	2,200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.12	19	52.6%10 W · 9 L	+2.6wins	+0.14per pick	39cpaid	+41.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ab7…7884backed Yes	7c	2,129$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.7	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	1c	2,074$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes	2c	2,049$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	265	8.7%23 W · 242 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd651…c8a1backed Yes	1c	2,034$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.34	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6db6…5001backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	53	13.2%7 W · 46 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+165.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	7c	2,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc164…efb9backed Yes	6c	1,592$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	83	37.3%31 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d79…7f4abacked Yes	1c	1,584$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	1,512$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.43	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x387c…2423backed Yes	1c	1,372$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.1	176	28.4%50 W · 126 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9583…bd4dbacked Yes	1c	1,188$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44e6…b17dbacked Yes	2c	1,176$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	24	12.5%3 W · 21 L	-3.3wins	-0.14per pick	26cpaid	-72.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes	1c	1,089$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.23	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+196.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd21…3c10backed Yes	1c	1,080$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	80	21.3%17 W · 63 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-16.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	1,011$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.11	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a4…939bbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6172…bb67backed Yes	2c	999.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.7	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04f5…a10ebacked Yes	6c	931.72$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.9	77	11.7%9 W · 68 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c5d…41b9backed Yes	6c	857.61$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.17	96	9.4%9 W · 87 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	6c	850.68$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	820.6$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.43	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fad…d264backed Yes	3c	655.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	16cpaid	+222%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xffd8…1a4dbacked Yes	3c	623.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	43	4.7%2 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-75.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…8d52backed Yes	10c	600$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	194	8.8%17 W · 177 L	-4.0wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-48.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes	6c	600$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	+45.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8aef…9d05backed Yes	3c	578.59$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7acf…fa62backed Yes	9c	572.22$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.5	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	523.25$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.4	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadc5…085cbacked Yes	6c	515.33$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.92	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	7c	500$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf78a…9f65backed Yes	8c	500$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	133	12.8%17 W · 116 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb68f…6fd2backed Yes	5c	499.96$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	360	18.6%67 W · 293 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x96a4…b967backed Yes	3c	461.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	17cpaid	+336.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67f…e81cbacked Yes	9c	458.55$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	30	6.7%2 W · 28 L	-2.2wins	-0.07per pick	14cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7608…2b7dbacked Yes	11c	454.55$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	5cpaid	+166.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b3…3a58backed Yes	3c	428.86$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58b9…e6a7backed Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.10per pick	10cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	193	17.6%34 W · 159 L	-5.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe15a…9854backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	59	23.7%14 W · 45 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	6c	399.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8d4…2ad9backed Yes	5c	399.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	141	29.1%41 W · 100 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	26cpaid	+22.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…58e1backed Yes	4c	399.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.3	110	9.1%10 W · 100 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2950…ec26backed Yes	11c	395.78$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8304…8526backed Yes	8c	366.66$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.33	46	8.7%4 W · 42 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce2e…3e5abacked Yes	6c	350$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	57	22.8%13 W · 44 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e6d…2b09backed Yes	6c	340$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	250	23.2%58 W · 192 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd27…b1dbbacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+1.5wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	+28.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b69…2beabacked Yes	9c	259.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.7	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x378e…af0dbacked Yes	5c	230.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96db…64e2backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	58	17.2%10 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6151…9848backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	27.3%9 W · 24 L	+3.2wins	+0.10per pick	18cpaid	+77.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcfe5…7f8cbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0067…446fbacked Yes	11c	184.32$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	53	9.4%5 W · 48 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e8c…c39abacked Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	182	18.7%34 W · 148 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b9…3dbfbacked Yes	11c	180$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 38 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event